Gale Warning 39, NWS Anchorage, AK

794 
FZAK52 PAFC 081226
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A TROF OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A 955 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO AROUND 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS PREDOMINANT OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14   FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE DETECTED THE MESO
LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF KODIAK ISLAND. MODELS ALL AGREE NOW ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAT WILL ROTATE
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TOMORROW AS WELL. IN THE LONGER TERM THE
ECMWF IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN STRENGTHENING A LOW INTO THE
950 MB RANGE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT EXTENDS IT RIDGE EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE. A LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
TOMORROW BUT BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW AFTER THAT AS THESE LOWS ARE
SEATED IN THE UPPER LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE PLACE FOR LOW FORMATION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A SHORT WAVE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
NEAR THE KODIAK AREA WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THIS WAVE BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST THE PRECIPITATION IS DIMINISHING AND MOSTLY
DISSIPATED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AS IT PASSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
KODIAK WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO GET OUT OF THE RAIN BUT IT SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BY MORNING AND THEN JUST BE SHOWERS BY TOMORROW.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
OVER THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
ALLOWING THE CUT OFF LOW TO DO SO AS WELL.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOWS TO MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL BRING MORE
WEATHER TO THE GULF COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND STORMY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 10