Gale Warning 389, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 10 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE MAIN LOW LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
CONSISTENCY IS VERY GOOD AND THERE ARE NO REAL CONCERNS WITH
SOLUTIONS AROUND THIS AREA. THERE ARE MORE CONCERNS DEALING WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SECONDARY WAVE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR WEST AND GFS TOO WEAK AS WELL AS A LITTLE SLOW.
NEXT MODEL RUN OR TWO WILL HOPEFULLY BRING BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE 250 MB JET STREAM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN
BENDS NORTHWARD EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS JET STREAM MAY PRODUCE A
TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG THE FRONT ENTERING THE GULF TONIGHT BUT THE
MODELS ARE MORE SOLD ON PRODUCING A TRIPLE POINT ON A SECONDARY WAVE
TUESDAY. THE FIRST TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE
IR IMAGERY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.NEAR 53N 153W AND THE SECONDARY
WAVE CAN BE SEEN NEAR 45N 160W.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BIG WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA NORTHWARD INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS ARE A SURE BET AROUND THE GULF AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND TURNAGAIN ARM. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE ANCHORAGE ARE IS WHETHER
WINDS WILL REACH WARNING LEVEL IN TURNAGAIN ARM AND IF THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST IN TOWN OR SHIFT NORTHWARD. THE PRESSURE FALLS DUE
TO THE APPROACHING FRONT FAVOR THE WIND SHIFT BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH
AND LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR AND KUSKOKWIM VALLY FAVOR WINDS
REMAINING SOUTHEAST. IF THERE IS A TRIPLE POINT THAT DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES MUCH MORE THAN MODELS PREDICT IT WOULD FAVOR WINDS
SHIFTING NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CITY.
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY BE IN TURNAGAIN ARM AND IN
THE CORDOVA AREA WHERE A POTENT BARRIER JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
STORM TRACK OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120 125 130.
         GALE 132 138 140 141 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 10