Gale Warning 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

215 
FZAK51 PAFC 031251
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH 
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING 
TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY TOWARD KAMISHAK BAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY 
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON...WITH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS CREEPING IN
BY ABOUT DAY 3. GFS DOING AN ACCEPTABLE JOB...AND WAS PREFERRED FOR
THE MORNING FORECASTS. TIMING OF EVENTS FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 8 IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GFS IS
REASONABLE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
HAS RETREATED TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. DEEP POLAR VORTEX TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ALASKA IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL NOT LONGER BE
A FACTOR IN THE LOCAL FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY AS THE DEVELOPING LOW
SLIDES WESTWARD...OPENING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN AT ALL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD AT
THE TOP END OF A WESTERN CANADIAN/LOWER 48 STATES RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ENTRENCHED NEXT WEEK AS THE
WEST COAST RIDGE BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RETREAT A BIT INTO THE
INTERIOR BUT REMAIN A STRONG BLOCKING FORCE...ALLOWING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 138 140 155 160 165 170 171 175 176 179
                         180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 10