Gale Warning 263, NWS Anchorage, AK

575 
FZAK51 PAFC 151135
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160200-
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BY TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-160200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-160200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-160200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-160200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-160200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-160200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-160200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-160200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-160200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 15 2010

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE
WITH TROUGHS CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA/FAR WESTERN BERING AND
MAINLAND ALASKA/GULF OF ALASKA...AND RIDGES OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. BOTH OF THESE RIDGES ARE AMPLIFYING AS THE
TROUGHS DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND THIS IS SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS AND RIDGES. THE MAJOR ALEUTIAN LOW
FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW EVOLVED INTO A COMPLEX LOW...WITH
TWO MAIN CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND ANOTHER FURTHER SOUTH.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED TO SOUTHCENTRAL BRINGING SNOW PRIMARILY
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COOK INLET REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW
HAS LIMITED SNOWFALL IN MANY PLACES SUCH AS ANCHORAGE...THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...AND VALDEZ BY MAINTAINING VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS RESULTING IN A LOT OF VIRGA. THIS FLOW HAS WEAKENED AND
LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED A BIT...SO EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE
SNOW REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PRODUCING THE
USUAL BLIZZARD THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH.

COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING REGION. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH BEGAN
APPROXIMATELY 30 HOURS AGO...PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA. WITH THE BERING SEA ICE PACK NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF COLD
BAY (APPROXIMATELY 20 MILES) THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IS OBSERVING
CONTINENTAL LIKE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA NOW
WITH UPPER RIDGE RIGHT BEHIND IT...SO CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH WAVES FORMING
ALONG THE BERING FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ONE OF THESE LOWS AS IT MOVES
UP THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS WILL GO WITH THE
MAJORITY SOLUTION OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES WITHOUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR FEATURES IN
THE SHORT-TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPPER WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GULF LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. THE BERING RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH THE GULF LOW OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND SET UP DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE
MAY BE A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IN THE USUAL PLACES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLDER
AIR MOVES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN BERING...SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CUT-OFF OVER WESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY...ENSURING
A PERIOD OF DRY AND CALM WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL SERVE TO BLOCK
STORMS OUT WEST FROM PROGRESSING BEYOND THE CENTRAL BERING. IN
FACT...MAJOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREAS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ROTATING AROUND A LARGE LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA.
FRONTS EXTENDING FROM THESE LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS AND THEN STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT IN EVOLUTION OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND MID WEEK AND THEN PHASE
WITH RIDGE ALONG WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW LONG-WAVE TROUGH TO SET UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING. SO...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK OVER THE MAINLAND WITH STORMS CONFINED TO THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS. WEATHER WILL THEN BECOME MORE ACTIVE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS STORMS MOVE UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
TO MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131 181.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 160 170 172 175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...130 132 138 140 141 150 155
                                        165 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 10