Gale Warning 253, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1252 PM AKST THU MAR 11 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS NAM AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES. LOW NEAR PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH RESIDUAL LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. BIG
STORM IN THE ALEUTIANS IS PROGED 5 TO 8 MB DEEPER BY GFS OVER NAM
WITH OLD ECMWF CLOSE TO GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CONTINUED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH FRI MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROP TROUGH. MAIN ENERGY IN
JET SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS WITH DEVELOPING STORM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
ALEUTIANS...STORM APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
SURFACE LOW TO REACH ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF ATKA TONIGHT. EXPECT STORM
FORCE WINDS IN MARINE ZONES AND 40 TO 50 MPH OVER LAND WITH GUSTS IN
THE 70 TO 80 MPH RANGE. GOING WITH BLIZZARDS ACROSS REGION AS INITIAL
BLAST SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY A WARMING AND WET
SNOW OR RAIN FOLLOWED ON THE BACKSIDE WITH MORE SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DECREASE. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARDS FOR LONG PERIODS INSTEAD OF ATTEMPTING
TO PIN POINT EXACT PERIODS.

SOUTHWEST...VARIABLE CLOUDS REMAINING COLD WITH BRISTOL BAY WARMING
SAT AFTERNOON AND KUSKO BASIN ON SUN.

SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH FRI MORNING.
PARTLY CLOUDY FRI PM AND SAT AM WITH FRONT MOVING ON SHORE SAT
AFTERNOON. KODIAK CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD SAT
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BY SUN RESIDUAL LOW SPINS IN SOUTHERN GULF
WHICH WILL IMPACT COASTAL AREAS WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BUT
OTHERWISE BENIGN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL.  TEMPERATURES OVER
MAINLAND SEASONABLE.  A WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING ON SUN PM WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNINGS: 191 187
MARINE...GALES: 150 155 165 170 172 175 176 130 132 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 10