Gale Warning 251, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKST WED MAR 10 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON VARIOUS
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  RESIDUAL MID TROPO TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GFS NAM AND ECMWF ALL TOGETHER ON NEXT
NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
THU...SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT MESSAGE IS CLEAR.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IN UPPER TROP WE HAVE A NORTH-SOUTH
TROUGH OVER THE STATE WITH A REASONABLE JET OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTH. THIS TRANSFORMS INTO A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF
ALEUTIANS THAT HELPS GENERATE THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL IMPRESSION IS
THAT NORTH PACIFIC TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS REGARDS TO STORM ACTIVITY.

AT THE SURFACE A CLASSIC MESO LOW DEVELOPED EARLY WED MORNING IN
SOUTHERN COOK INLET THAT HAS PRODUCED MORE SNOW IN THE GREATER HOMER
AREA...LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.  SNOW ALSO
DEVLOPED THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE COPPER BASIN WITH SHOWERS
PREVAILING IN THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...TWO MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST.  FIRST IS THE
STORM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING.  MODELS INDICATING STRONG EAST THEN NORTH
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER PRECIP WILL REMAIN
AS SNOW OR MIXED.  CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCHES LOOK AS IF HAVE BEST
CHANCE TO VERIFY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
850 MODEL TEMPS OVER ALEUTIANS IN THE -4 TO -10 C RANGE SO WORRIED
THAT PRECIP WILL BE WET SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN...SO VIZ MAY NOT VERIFY
FOR BLIZZARDS.  STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE SECOND ISSUE CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT OR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OF PWS THU AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEVER
REALLY DIMINISHES OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IN ANY CASE DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM SO IF IT VERIFIES ONLY EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.
WITH TROUGH CENTERED OVER COOK INLET EXPECTING COLD TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES TROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODERATION
IN ZONE 161 ON SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LOOKS AS REMNANTS OF ALEUTIAN SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GULF ON SAT MORNING WITH OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN GULF
LATE ON SAT. REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT IMPACT THIS RESIDUAL FRONT WILL
HAVE AT THAT TIME. IN THE FAR WEST A FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING  SAT NIGHT WITH THE LOW POSITIONED OVER
KAMCHATKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZ WATCH 187 191
MARINE...GALES:155 176 175 172 170 130 132  HVY SPRAY: 121 129 130
      132 138 140 141
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 10