Gale Warning 249, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKST TUE MAR 9 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RESIDUAL
LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...GFS MOVES IT TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER THAN
NAM.  FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL REFLECT MORE OF NAM SOLUTION. IN THE
ALEUTIANS THE LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF ATKA IS PROGED WELL BY BOTH GFS
AND NAM.  THERE IS LARGE DISCREPANCY REGARDING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON THU.  CURRENT TRACKS TAKE
INTO THE PANHANDLE SO MINOR IMPACTS ON ANC MARINE ZONES.  THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SYSTEM ON THU IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL WITH GFS SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND EASTWARD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM RESIDUAL SOUTHCENTRAL
LOW.  STRONG WEST WINDS FROM COOK INLET TO KODIAK AND AK PEN
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW CROSSES
CHAIN NEAR DUTCH HARBOR THIS EVENING.
IN UPPER TROPOSPHERE ZONAL JET FORMS DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
BY WED NIGHT AND SUPPORTS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO
EASTERN GULF ON THU.  MOST OF JET ENERGY PROGED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 40N
AND 50N FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL.  MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
ALEUTIANS WITH FRONT MOVING OVER WESTERN AL THU MORNING. TO REMAIN
COLD OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES AND EASTERN BERING REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MAIN SYSTEM IS LOW TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
50N...SHOULD GENERATE SOME STRONG EAST WINDS OVER MOST OF ALEUTIANS
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARDS IN SOME
LOCALES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 121 PROBABLY CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON
MARINE...GALES: 172 170 155 141 140 138 132 130
FIRE WEATHER...NADA

JMP MAR 10