Gale Warning 211, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT MON MAR 29 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SIBERIA EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAKER UPPER LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT HAS BECOME
STATIONARY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND IS WEAKENING. AREAS OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA HAVE
BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA
CONTINUES TO KEEP A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL SECTIONS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 20 BELOW
AND 35 BELOW WERE RECORDED ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND TO 10
BELOW AT KING COVE THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA. THEY
ALL DISSIPATE THE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GULF AND WEAKEN THE
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE WAY THE MODELS HANDLE THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. THE NAM AND THE GFS KEEPS IT NEARLY STATIONARY, WHILE THE
EC MOVES IT INTO NORTHERN BERING BY WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, WE PREFER
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BECAUSE IT IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE NOGAPS
MODEL. ALL THE MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS
ABOUT THE SAME WITH ONLY SMALL VARIATIONS IN PRESSURE. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SWING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY AND WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ALASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL BECOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS
AROUND KODIAK ISLAND WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WILL STRETCH INTO THE
EASTERN BERING TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND DEEPEN TO 960 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN,
SNOW AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STRONG LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL SWING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE INSHORE AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN.
MARINE...STORM 155 170
         GALE 132 150 160 165 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 10