Gale Warning 200, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EARLY ON WITH DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO
BECOME APPARENT AT ABOUT 60 HOURS. PREFERENCE MORE NAM FOR FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS. FROM 60 TO 84 HOURS LEANED TOWARD THE GFS OUT WEST
AND THE ECMWF IN THE GULF. CHANGES TO EXISTING FORECAST WERE
MINIMAL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH WEAKENING.
THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL ALSO SHARPEN UP AS A DEEP LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A
DECENTLY STRONG TO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL WEAKEN...SOME RESIDUAL "RIDGINESS"
WILL LINGER OVER THE STATE KEEPING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO COASTAL AREAS. FURTHER WEST...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL CROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY
AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172 176. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 10