Gale Warning 196, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
140 PM AKDT TUE MAR 16 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
AKPEN COURTESY OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
TROUGHS...ONE OVER THE BERING SEA/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF. THE LATTER TROUGH ALSO FEATURES A
BROAD CUTOFF LOW THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE GULF. STACKED BENEATH
THIS LOW IS A WEAKENING 1005 MB SURFACE LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE ALASKAN
ARCTIC SEABOARD. FOUR DISTINCT RIDGES BRANCH OUT IN THE CARDINAL
DIRECTIONS FROM THIS HIGH...WITH THE SOUTHERN RIDGE ENCOMPASSING
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE AOR THROUGH THE NEAR SHORT
TERM...BUT PROBLEMS BEGIN TO ARISE PAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT
TO A NEW LOW THAT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER EAST SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH THE
GFS NOW DEVELOPING A NEW LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
EXPERIENCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES
HOW MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING INTO THE PRESENT GULF
LOW REMAINS TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT ON THE
MAINLAND...THOUGH IT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
GULF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT TO WHAT
EXTENT THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...BUT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...QUIET WEATHER WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ENERGY FROM THE GULF STORM
MAY SPILL NORTHWARD AND BRING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS MODELS PUSH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER EAST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...CURRENT FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON AS IT RUNS UP AGAINST THE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SECOND FRONT PROMPTLY FOLLOWS IN ITS
FOOTSTEPS...ENTERING THE BERING SEA TOMORROW MORNING AND TRACKING
SWIFTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEFORE RUNNING UP
AGAINST THE SAME SOUTHWEST ALASKA RIDGE. THUS EXPECT A BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS STARTING TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND OVER WESTERN ALASKA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEW STORM SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172 175 185.
         STORM WARNING...176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS MAR 10