Gale Warning 147, NWS Anchorage, AK

412 
FZAK51 PAFC 160038
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 MB LOW 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO OVER
KODIAK ISLAND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS TO 994 MB. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES WEST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A 988 MB
LOW MOVES TO 470 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E OF CAPE CLEARE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. W OF
CAPE CLEARE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...E OF CAPE CLEARE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. W OF CAPE
CLEARE...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NW OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. SE OF BARREN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURVES WEST OUT OF THE YUKON TERRITORY AND
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
RIDGE WILL STILL GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN A SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT...CONTINUING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FIXED OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS. A STACKED 966 MB LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
IS SLOWLY FILLING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE
SPREADING ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE
KENAI AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN MOUNTAIN RANGES AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PUSHES NORTH AND WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. A WEAK LINE OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS SOUTHEAST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA EVEN PRODUCED A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW IS
DRAWING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING.
QUIET WEATHER ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AS THE REMNANTS OF A
SURFACE LOW DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS COURTESY OF AN
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF ATKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT GULF SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL...THOUGH
THERE IS A 120 MILE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AS TO WHERE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL COME ASHORE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TOMORROW MORNING. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY IS ALSO CAPTURED WELL OVERALL. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE NEXT GULF SYSTEM...WHICH UNSURPRISINGLY
IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE TRACKS OF THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN DIAGNOSING SYSTEMS WHICH HAVE YET TO
DEVELOP...AS IS EVIDENT BY THE LARGE SOLUTION SPREADS OUT PAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY WITH REGARDS TO THE CENTER OF THE
LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATKA...WITH ITS ELONGATED NATURE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
TO THESE DISCREPANCIES. DESPITE THESE INITIAL PROBLEMS...MODELS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DIVERGE QUICKLY
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING THE LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MOVES
INLAND NEAR KODIAK LATE TONIGHT AND QUICKLY TROUGHS OUT LATE ON
MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND OTHER FAVORABLE PASSES AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSES WEST OF COOK INLET. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS UP INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS WEST OF THE CHUGACH WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPED FOR THESE
EVENTS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THESE AREAS.
ANCHORAGE MAY EVEN PUSH 40 DEGREES IF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAKE
IT TO THE CITY. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD AS THE GULF LOW MOVES INLAND AND ALLOW THE MEAN FLOW TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS BROAD RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA ONCE AGAIN
ASSUMES CONTROL OF THE REGION'S WEATHER. THUS EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT GULF LOW EVOLVE INTO A
STATIONARY TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. THE NEXT
GULF LOW MERGES WITH THIS TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE WHOLE SYSTEM
WONT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS THUS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATKA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE ALEUTIANS. A SERIES OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND WEAK
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY INITIALLY BRING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SWITCHES TO RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...WITH A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOWS ROTATING INTO THE GULF AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WEST OUT OF CANADA THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM GULF AIR INTO THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 130 138 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS/EZ FEB 10