Gale Warning 1079, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST WED DEC 22 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF REMAIN HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST TOWARD WESTERN ALASKA. AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

.AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
GULF DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE GULF. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY, MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND THE COOK INLET. STRONG WINDS PERSIST OVER BRISTOL BAY AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY, BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. A NEW WEATHER FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN BERING
OVERNIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
PREFERRED IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DUE TO SUPERIOR HANDLING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG GULF COAST AND THE GFS WAS USED IN THE
WESTERN DOMAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
ALSO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...STRONG WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT OVER
SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST THURSDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.BERING SEA...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH BERING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL FLATTEN WITH THE FRONT, THEN REBUILD
OVER THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL DRIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SUNDAY AND MOVE THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN ALASKA WILL CLEAR MOST OF THE CLOUDS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING NEAR WHITTIER.
MARINE...STORM 150
         GALE 130 132 138 155 160 165 170 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM DEC 10