Gale Warning 1076, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST TUE DEC 21 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE NORTH PACIFIC. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND KODIAK ISLAND. AREAS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF, PARTS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
KODIAK ISLAND. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KODIAK THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT WEAKENED INTO A
TROUGH AS IT SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY. AREAS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

AT THE HIGHER LEVELS, A COMPLEX LOW REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.UPPER LEVELS...THE COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING WEDNESDAY THEN INTO WESTERN
ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER CENTRAL
ALASKA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SIBERIA INTO THE WESTERN MAINLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SNOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE DELTA COAST WILL
DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER SIBERIA WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND AND
THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY. BOTH THE LOW AND THE WEATHER
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL SECTION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY THEN BECOME SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY THEN WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AS THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIBERIAN LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOW SOUTH
OF THE GULF THURSDAY WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
THE KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR KODIAK.
MARINE...STORM 150
         GALES 120 130 132 155 160 165 170 171 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

*** DEC 10