Gale Warning 1039, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST WED DEC 8 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE AS WILL
AS SYNOPTIC TRENDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/WRF MODELS FOR LOCAL
DRAINAGE AND CAPE FLOWS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.UPPER LEVELS...STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT. A
SECONDARY LOW CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR KODIAK
BY FRI AFTERNOON AND SETS UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SURFACE...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURES GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH
THU OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DRAINAGE
AND GAP FLOWS AT LOCALS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
GULF. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG...UPPER SUPPORT WAINS LATER THU AND INTO FRI...SO DRAINAGE AND
GAP FLOWS SHOULD WEAKEN. MOISTURE WITH WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING A SHOT AT SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF LATER
TONIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EVENTUALLY START MOVING NORTH
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FRI AND SAT AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND SETS UP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT. SO WOULD LOOK FOR
CONTINUED DRY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

EASTERN BERING SEA/EAST ALEUTIANS/AK PEN...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GOOD UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ACROSS THE AK PEN THROUGH
FRI...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ELSEWHERE ON THU AS GRADIENTS TO THE WEST
RELAX.

.WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...LOCAL SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND FAR WEST BERING SEA THROUGH
SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES SYNOPTICALLY APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WHILE PRECIPITATION REMAINS NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...127 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179
         HVY FRZG SPRY...150 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 10