Gale Warning 103, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON FEB 15 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC FIELD INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST
TRENDS ARE WITHIN REASON THROUGH WED. SOLUTIONS IN THE EAST CONTINUE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGENCE CONSIDERABLY IN THE WESTERN/CENTER BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS.
AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL GENERALLY BE BASED ON BLENDS OF CURRENT GRIDS
WITH THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

.500MB...SAT PICTURE WITH 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAY SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY
NORTH PACIFIC JET FROM JAPAN TO OVER THE NE PACIFIC. SE ORIENTED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK TO OVER THE NE
PACIFIC OCEAN. WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE WEST COAST TO OVER
CANADA. TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG 150-160W TUE AND WED AS COLD AIR DIGS
SOUTH. IN RESPONSE THE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 130W. BY WED AFTERNOON...A
LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH EXTENDS FROM AROUND 40N 130-140W TO OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND BRINGS MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS.
OUT WEST...TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK
DIGS SOUTH AND BUILDS THE RIDGE OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA TUE NIGHT. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS WED/THU AS
LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS
SE.

.SURFACE...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF OF ALASKA...EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES
OF WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND RECURVE NORTHWEST INTO
THE GULF. WEAKENING CENTER NEAR KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO DIMINISH
TODAY. NEXT LOW TO ENTER THE GULF...CURRENTLY SW OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND TUE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GALES TO NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS IN COASTAL MARINES.
PRECIPITATION AGAIN SHOULD BE CAUGHT BY COASTS AND SE EXPOSURES WITH
DOWN-SLOPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND. ONSET OF DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE GULF AND NE PACIFIC WED AND THU WILL CONTINUE MILD
TEMPS AND BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO GULF COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

SW MAINLAND...WEAKENING LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIX WITH THIS SYSTEM. GUSTY GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS GRADIENTS RELAX.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND SW ALASKA THROUGH
WED...SO WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW
IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TO SNOW OVER THE DELTA AND INLAND. DEVELOPING
WEST PACIFIC STORM MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE LOWER 960S
EARLY WED MORNING. THIS CENTER THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKENS THU MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IMPACTS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO THE EAST CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT.
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY
CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH RAIN. SO FOR NOW NOT THINKING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CHAIN...HOWEVER HIGH WIND
CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN.

LONG TERM FORECAST...
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS EXPECTED...WITH
SIGNS BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE PANHANDLE REGION WILL BUILD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
ALL OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 175 AND 176. GALE 120 125 130 140 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 10