Brisk Wind Advisory 49, NWS Anchorage, AK

383 
FZAK52 PAFC 051350 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
550 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

UPDATED ZONE 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060200-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR SAINT PAUL WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS TO 
BRISTOL BAY MON EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS MON AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-060200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
550 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-060200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF PORT MOLLER...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY
LATE MORNING. PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT EXCEPT 3 FT
FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-060200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-060200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT.  

$$

044 
FZAK52 PAFC 052354
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061400-
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 MB LOW 50 NM NORTH OF ST PAUL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE MON NIGHT
AS IT MOVES OVER PILOT POINT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING. A 972 MB LOW 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU
TUE EVENING MOVES 250 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON AT 987 MB.
$$

PKZ150-061400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT ...NW WIND 15 KT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-061400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT EXCEPT 3 FT
FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT EXCEPT 4 FT FROM
PORT MOLLER E. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-061400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT PACIFIC SIDE...15 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT PACIFIC SIDE...21 FT BERING SIDE.  

$$

PKZ171-061400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-061400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT
PACIFIC SIDE...8 FT BERING SIDE. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT PACIFIC SIDE...11 FT BERING SIDE. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 32 FT PACIFIC SIDE...20 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT PACIFIC SIDE...23 FT BERING SIDE.  

$$

PKZ175-061400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT PACIFIC SIDE...10 FT BERING SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS
16 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT PACIFIC SIDE...22 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-061400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 15 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 15 KT
BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS
14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-061400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-061400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON APR 5 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1210 PM AKDT SUN APR 4 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A NEAR ZONAL UPPER JET EXTENDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE DIVING SOUTHWARD AS IT REACHES THE
GULF...HEADING AROUND A POTENT SYSTEM SITTING OFF THE NORTHWEST
U.S. COAST. A DEEP COLD LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
BERING WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THE STRONG JET AND ZONAL FLOW ARE PRODUCING A VERY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE TROUGH AXIS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD HELPING TO PULL BACK
A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THERE IS A BAND OF STEADY SNOW RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE NORTH END OF KODIAK ISLAND TO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY AFFECTING COASTAL AND UPSLOPE AREAS. MEANWHILE...A
COUPLE SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO RIDE THE JET EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BERING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE IS THE ONE NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW IS HELPING TO KICK WINDS UP TO 35 TO 40 KT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND SHOW GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE MINOR. AFTER THAT POINT SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF
DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE GFS/NAM NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE EC/UKMET. BECAUSE STRONG
JET REMAINS IN PLACE PREFER TO GO WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT STEADY PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH ON THE
WESTERN KENAI...AND OVER TO INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN QUICKLY FALL APART AS IT ROTATES NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
BERING LOW CENTER MONDAY. SO PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BREAK UP AND
BECOME MORE SHOWERS AGAIN BEFORE IT MAKES MUCH PROGRESS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE GULF
BY MID WEEK. AS IT DOES SO UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN ITS CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING. THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE IN TRYING TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND IN UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT OTHER
EVERYONE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS EACH WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

OUT WEST...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A BROAD
AREA OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING INTO
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE
NEXT LOW MOVING OUT OF RUSSIA WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING TUESDAY...BUT A DEEP LOW FROM THE TROPICS WILL BE THE MAJOR
PLAYER AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
MID WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY SOUTH OF THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS THEN INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CAUSING
A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THIS...THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG-WAVE. SO...WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE
MAINLAND ALASKA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE A
MAJOR STORM MOVES INTO THE BERING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 125 129 155 165 170 171 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 10