Blizzard Warning 32, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 31, 2010, 1:12 PM AKST (22:12 UTC)

Expired

Jan 1, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

27 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

509 
WWAK42 PAFC 312212
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
112 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2010

AKZ195-011115-
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0032.101231T2212Z-110102T0100Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
112 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST SATURDAY. 

VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SNOWFALL AND WINDS DIMINISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-011115-
/X.CON.PAFC.WS.A.0004.110101T1400Z-110102T1000Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
112 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. 

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START AS SNOW LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES MAY
RISE A BIT ABOVE FREEZING...MANY EXPOSED STRUCTURES WILL BE SLOW
TO WARM DUE TO THE HARD FREEZE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THIS WOULD ENABLE RAIN TO FREEZE
ON IMPACT...WITH APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH POSSIBLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE WINTER STORM THREAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION
FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ161-011115-
/X.CON.PAFC.WS.A.0004.110101T1000Z-110102T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
112 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM AKST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM AKST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.

SNOW IN BRISTOL BAY IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES TOWARDS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND ON
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START AS SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
A BIT ABOVE FREEZING...MANY EXPOSED STRUCTURES WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM DUE TO THE HARD FREEZE BRISTOL BAY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING THE
LAST FEW WEEKS. THIS WOULD ENABLE RAIN TO FREEZE ON IMPACT...WITH
APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF DILLINGHAM. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY EVENING ENDING THE WINTER STORM THREAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION
FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard warning went out at Dec 31, 5:55 AM AKST, 7 hours 17 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
555 AM AKST FRI DEC 31 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS MORNING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
COOK INLET REGION HEADED FOR THE INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE NEXT LOW IS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND APPEARS IMPRESSIVE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE A LEFT TURN AND HEAD NORTH JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE SECOND LOW AND AFFECT THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

OBSERVATIONS IN THE COOK INLET REGION AND DATA FROM THE UPPER AIR
RADIOSONDE AT ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING INDICATE A DEEP WARM LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WITH RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW WILL ASSURE THAT MOST AREAS SEE RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW
IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY IS ON TRACK AS SPOTTER REPORTS WOULD SUGGEST AT
LEAST A FOOT HAS ALREADY FALLEN SOME PLACES. AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY ARE
LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THIS LOW MOVING
MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN BERING SEA...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MORE WARM AIR TO WORK WITH SUCH THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW INITIALLY WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPE DRY HOLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE CHUGACH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA...BUT THEN
FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SOMETIME AFTER
NOON THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP PRECIPITATION MAKE IT INTO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL. STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS FORECAST
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MAY POSE
SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE
EVENT SHOULD BEGIN THIS EVENING AS SNOW...BUT STRONG WARMING JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THERE ARE STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS AS TO
WHEN THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS AND HOW FAST IT OCCURS...BUT THERE IS THE
CHANCE THAT A QUARTER INCH OF ICE FALLS ACROSS MANY PLACES BEFORE AN
EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR DILLINGHAM. WITH
THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA ZONES. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR THE PRIBILOFS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
BERING. THE MAIN SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE MORNING
WHICH COULD CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS. WILL STAY ON TOP OF THIS
AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING BY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING...145
         WINTER STORM WATCH...155 161
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...152
MARINE...GALES...120 125 129 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171
                 172 179 185
         STORMS...130
         HVY FRZG SPRY...179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC DEC 10

Blizzard Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every blizzard warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.