Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Aberdeen, SD

680 
WWUS53 KABR 062009
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

SDC085-062030-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-100706T2030Z/
LYMAN SD-
309 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
LYMAN COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 308 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RELIANCE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF
CHAMBERLAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OACOMA AROUND 330 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4364 9959 4374 9965 4372 9967 4374 9970
      4384 9983 4404 9954 4380 9934 4377 9942
      4371 9940 4369 9946 4366 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 245DEG 18KT 4380 9953
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$
KRAMLICH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1018 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.UPDATE...
WEAK 700HPA WAVE/TROF SLIDING OVER THE AREA IS CREATING SOME SCT
-SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MUCH STRONGER WAVE EJECTING OVER TOP OF
FRONT. WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT...HEAVY RAIN
STILL POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO ADD WORDING TO
AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
WENT CATEGORICAL WITH PCPN IN THE NEAR TERM. A BIT WORRIED ABOUT
HIGHS GIVEN CLOUD COVER/PCPN BUT TEMPS ARE STILL CLIMBING...IF
EVER SO SLOWLY. WILL MONITOR. UPDATED WORDED ZONE FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT.

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS NAM AND
ECMWF AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLDING
TOGETHER RATHER WELL WITH LOW STANDARD DEVIATION WITH RESPECT TO 500MB
HEIGHTS. UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS BEST
AFTER 00Z. AT 200MB...DIVERGENCE LOOKS BEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH
BEST DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500MB...THE
SOUTHWEST CWA IS THE FOCAL POINT FOR BEST PVA AND Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LOOKS SOMEWHAT DECENT. MID LEVEL LIFT LOOKS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES AROUND -20 UBAR/S DURING THE EVENING.
RATHER DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN
PLAY AS WELL. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. LIKE THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS ONE HAS
ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXTEND
INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. AFTER THE
SYSTEM PASSES...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID RANGE. THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY APPEAR APPEAR TO BE THE DRY TIME FOR THE MID
RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AT THE SFC. SATURDAY SEES THE
RETURN OF TSTORM CHANCES AS ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS CHANCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE SFC FROPA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. RADAR TRENDS DO INDICATE THAT PRECIP IS
DISSIPATING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KMBG WILL BE THE MAIN TAF SITE
AFFECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ALL CIGS WILL BE OF
VFR CATEGORY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...GIONTA
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...KRAMLICH

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
442 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-070945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
442 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010 /342 AM MDT TUE JUL 6 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. INITIALLY...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE REST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ATG