Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
718 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 202 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE CWA. A TORNADO-PRODUCING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM IS WORKING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WATCH AREA. REPORTS FROM EDMUNDS COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INDICATE SUBSTANTIVE DAMAGE HAS BEEN INCURRED
FROM THIS TORNADIC SUPERCELLULAR THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS
SITUATION. PLEASE MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND TAKE THE APPROPRIATE
SAFETY MEASURES TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RESIDENTS OF ROSCOE
SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE EAST...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS LIMITED
INSTABILITY UNDER +13C H7 CAP...WHILE ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...IN THE VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH...CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED WARMER AIR TO MIX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
DPTS IN THE UPPER 60S. INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW +12C CAP TO
GRADUALLY ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND JET
STREAK IS EVIDENT IN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE FEATURES SET THE STAGE FOR FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT SO MAIN THREAT IS HAIL AS MID LEVEL WINDS ARE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MARGINALIZE WIND THREAT. CANT RULE OUT
TORNADO FORMATION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH SEVERAL WEAK
BOUNDARIES VIA RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS
WILL MERGE INTO A LINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES SOURCE OF FORCING ACROSS THE EAST...PASSING OUT OF THE
CWA SUNDAY AM.

SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK SUNDAY...HOWEVER WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARDS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVITY MONDAY
AM...WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOLLOWING INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.../FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM/
THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ERN CONUS ON TUE...WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT LIFTING NEWD INTO SRN
CANADA. LOW LVL FLOW ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION MORE W/SWLY
WHICH SHOULD ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE EAST. THUS MAINTAINED HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE/TUE NIGHT.
A BIT MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE Q-G FORCING REMAINS RATHER WEAK.
AGAIN...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS WARRANTED ALTHOUGH
MANY AREA WILL LIKELY STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE/WED WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY.../FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM-HIGH/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW OUT WEST. THIS
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD THEN PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS /850MB TEMPS OF +16 TO +23 C/ AND ALSO HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW DIURNALLY TSTMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL PROBABILITIES ARE VERY
LOW. TEMPERATURES BY END OF THE WEEK STILL APPEAR QUITE TOASTY.
WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR NOW...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW 90S SHOWING UP BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR THE MOMENT...HOWEVER...NO TAF TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE
IN LINE TO EXPERIENCE ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUING WITH
A PREVAILING VFR FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE TIME
BEING...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION AND
MOVEMENT PASSED THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT IS STILL
POSSIBLE. FURTHER WEST...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD IMPACT THE KMBG
TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING AS WELL. KPIR LOOKS TO BE HIGH AND DRY
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH...AT THIS TIME.

STORMS RUMBLING OVER TERMINALS TONIGHT WILL GENERATE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
PROBABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

SDZ004>011-016>019-034>037-048-051-232230-
CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-
POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
528 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
TORNADO WATCH 202 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT. SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN A
TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS...EFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ003-015-020>023-033-045-232230-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-DEWEY-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
STANLEY-JONES-
528 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010 /428 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT.

DORN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
806 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TORNADO          5 NE IPSWICH            45.50N 98.96W
05/22/2010                   EDMUNDS            SD   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASERS REPORT TORNADOS ON THE GROUND 3 TO 5 MILES
            NORTHEAST OF IPSWICH

&&

NWS

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