Wind Advisory 42, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 PM MST TUE DEC 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WFO EL PASO IS BACKING UP WFO ALBUQUERQUE TODAY. HAVE FOCUSED
PRIMARILY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TOMORROW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UPWARD ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM THE COLORADO BORDER SOUTH
TO LINCOLN COUNTY. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 45 MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE ISSUED.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED UP
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL BEGIN PRODUCING LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL FINE TUNE POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS
THAT MAY OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE THAT TIME
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMALS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS NM THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH A MID-DECK DEVELOPING IN THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME
MOUNTAINWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...MAINLY FROM THE
SANGRE/SANDIA MOUNTAINS EAST INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. WIND
SPEEDS OF 18-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE AFORMENTIONED REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EDITED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A COOLER/MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD. IN FACT...THERE IS A
THREAT FOR WETTING PCPN THU/ THU NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE REGION.

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A LOWERING DECK EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 700MB WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40-45KT RANGE.
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR MOUNTAINWAVE ACTIVITY PERSISTING IN FAVORED
LOCALES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO POOR RECOVERIES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTS. A 50-60KT 700MB JET CORE WILL BISECT THE STATE BY
LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SFC LEE-
SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN IN THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WINDY DAY IS PROJECTED WITH POTENTIAL
30-35KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 45-50KTS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MTS/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
CLINES CORNERS AREA. CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS GREATEST FOR NMZ108 AS 10-15 PCT HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMMON. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS WED NIGHT...
LEADING TO HIGHER HUMIDITIES. MEANWHILE...THE PACIFIC ASPECT OF THE
FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE NM FOR
THU/THU NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED AS MOISTURE LEVELS
IMPROVE. PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
KEEP NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PCPN CHANCES ACTIVE. GUSTY WINDS COULD
RETURN TO THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON......................  32  51  34  45 /   0  20  30  40
DULCE...........................  19  47  27  40 /   0  20  40  40
CUBA............................  22  55  28  47 /   0   5  20  40
GALLUP..........................  26  54  32  46 /   0   5  20  40
EL MORRO........................  24  55  30  44 /   0   5  20  50
GRANTS..........................  27  60  32  48 /   0   5  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  24  62  32  47 /   0   5  10  50
GLENWOOD........................  29  67  35  55 /   0   0   5  50
CHAMA...........................  19  47  23  36 /   5  20  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  53  34  42 /   0   5  20  30
PECOS...........................  32  56  31  41 /   0   0  10  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  20  51  24  36 /   0   0  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  24  46  23  28 /   0   5  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  23  48  24  29 /   0   0  20  50
TAOS............................  21  51  24  40 /   0   0  20  40
MORA............................  30  55  28  35 /   0   0  10  40
ESPANOLA........................  25  59  28  50 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA FE........................  31  56  33  45 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  58  34  50 /   0   5  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  34  60  39  48 /   0   0   5  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  35  62  40  50 /   0   0   5  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  29  63  36  52 /   0   0   5  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  62  36  51 /   0   0   5  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  26  66  33  54 /   0   0   5  30
RIO RANCHO......................  32  64  36  53 /   0   0   5  30
SOCORRO.........................  33  70  38  57 /   0   0   0  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  59  34  47 /   0   0   5  30
TIJERAS.........................  31  61  37  51 /   0   0   5  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  29  62  33  53 /   0   0   5  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  34  58  35  44 /   0   0   0  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  34  65  38  52 /   0   0   0  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  33  66  34  54 /   0   0   0  30
RUIDOSO.........................  39  64  36  49 /   0   0   0  30
CAPULIN.........................  30  60  24  29 /   0   0  10  30
RATON...........................  28  62  25  33 /   0   0  10  30
SPRINGER........................  30  65  26  35 /   0   0   5  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  36  63  29  38 /   0   0   5  40
CLAYTON.........................  38  69  25  33 /   0   0   0  30
ROY.............................  35  64  28  32 /   0   0   0  20
CONCHAS.........................  36  74  34  41 /   0   0   0  20
SANTA ROSA......................  37  71  33  48 /   0   0   0  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  37  75  29  39 /   0   0   0  10
CLOVIS..........................  35  74  31  46 /   0   0   0  10
PORTALES........................  34  75  33  47 /   0   0   0  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  37  76  36  50 /   0   0   0  10
ROSWELL.........................  33  80  37  62 /   0   0   0  10
PICACHO.........................  36  76  37  60 /   0   0   0  20
ELK.............................  36  71  37  57 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ107-108.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-523-526-529-533-539-540.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107.

&&

01 LUNDEEN - WFO EL PASO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MST TUE DEC 14 2010

NMZ501>540-151300-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MST TUE DEC 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALLOWING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP FOR 2 TO 5 HOURS BETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM MST ACROSS AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO MUCH OF TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD TO
MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND HUMIDITIES DROP FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OR
TWO WILL LIKELY CROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD...PRODUCING SOME
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND GENERAL WINTRY
WEATHER REPORTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

43

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