Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT MON MAY 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE FIRED UP ON SCHEDULE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG MOISTURE BOUNDARY. AS THESE STORM SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THEY MAY
BECOME SEVERE.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.  CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ARE NEARING 3000 J/KG ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. SPEED SHEAR IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE.
FURTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT...BUT SHEAR IS BETTER.
THUS...ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS.  THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND WILL TAPER OFF OR EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT FURTHER EAST TOMORROW. BUT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. STORM SHOULD INITIALLY FORM
JUST WEST OF THE NM/TX BORDER BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING INTO TEXAS.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE...WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO.  THOUGH THE LL MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK
WESTWARD A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL GET USHERED OUT FAIRLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. REDUCED POPS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD.  BACK DOOR FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL JUST SKIRT THE TEXAS
BORDER.  WEAK RIDGING WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY...AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK.  DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RETURNING.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE MET WITHIN THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM CORES. SITES SUCH AS LVS...TCC AND ROW COULD BE
AFFECTED. A RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LOW CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. THIS WILL INCLUDE
AFFECTS TO LVS...TCC AND ROW. RIGHT NOW...HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEPICTED WITHIN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BUT IFR WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IF THE MOISTURE POOL BECOMES DEEPER.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. DECIDED TO
FUSS WITH THE WINDS A LITTLE BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL FEEL OF STRONG WINDS REMAINS
DURING THOSE PERIODS. INCREASED WIND A BIT MORE FOR TUESDAY. ALSO
TWEAKED WITH DEWPOINTS THUS AFFECTING THE RH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
EXPECT A DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH BACK TO THE WEST DUE TO THE EXPECTED
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...DRYLINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO NEAR CLINES CORNERS
AND DOWN TO LINCOLN COUNTY. THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SCATTERED...WETTER STORMS
WILL FORM ALONG IT. LOWERING HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND TO THE WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AS MIXING CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND DRIVEN BY THE
AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST. THUS HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. SOME MOISTURE SHOULD SPILL INTO PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT IT WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW. POOR TO
MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE MIDSLOPE AREAS
DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A MODERATELY STRONG DRY SLOT
BEING OVERHEAD.

DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS FOR TUESDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
GROWING CONDITIONS SHOW UP A BIT MORE FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AREAS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE TO THE FUELS...ESPECIALLY
AS IT CONCERNS EFFECTIVE GREENUP AND EXPECTED ABUNDANT HIGH CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH. THE MAIN ZONES TO WATCH WOULD BE 109...106 AND 107. PRIMARILY
FROM THE SAN AUGUSTIN PLAIN OVER TO SOCORRO COUNTY ON TO THE
CHUPADERA MESA. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL VIA STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOUND NEAR TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE AND FAVOR THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THIS IS WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH CREATING THE STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL
PUSH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW AND CREATE SOME
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER THE MOST ACROSS
THE FAR EAST AND NOT SHOW MUCH OF A TREND FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

RESIDUAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES BUT NOT TOO STRONG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RESPOND BY LOWERING MOST AREAS.

THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS EVEN MONDAY PERIOD COULD BE
SUMMED UP AS EXPECTING TYPICAL MID SPRING NEW MEXICO CONDITIONS.
QUITE A BIT OF WIND...LOWER HUMIDITY AND A HIGH HAINES IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE INCREASE WILL START ON FRIDAY WITH LOCALIZED
RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT INCREASE FURTHER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REALIZED. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD FOR THIS
SCENARIO SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING THIS SINCE LATE LAST
WEEK. AS THE TIME FRAME GETS CLOSER...HOPE TO GET ADDITIONAL INTEL
ON THE WILDLAND FUELS AS WELL AS PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER AHEAD
OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...A
SEMI PERMANENT TROUGH COULD END UP DEVELOPING OVER THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST...PLACING THE WINDIER...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  48  75  44  70 /   0  10  20   5
DULCE...........................  38  69  36  66 /   0  20  20  20
CUBA............................  42  70  36  67 /   0   5  10   5
GALLUP..........................  42  71  37  69 /   0  10   5   0
EL MORRO........................  42  68  36  66 /   0   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  40  73  38  70 /   0   5   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  40  72  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  45  80  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  34  66  32  65 /   5  20  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  71  41  67 /   5   5   5   5
PECOS...........................  41  74  40  69 /   5   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  69  35  64 /   5  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  34  60  33  58 /   5  20  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  33  64  33  61 /  10  20  20  20
TAOS............................  41  72  37  66 /   5  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  47  79  42  76 /   5   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  42  75  40  69 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  78  43  72 /   5   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  52  78  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  55  79  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  52  81  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  79  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  51  82  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  53  79  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  53  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  76  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  78  42  74 /   5   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  45  75  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  49  77  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  53  82  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  45  75  47  73 /  20   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  47  68  42  67 /  30  30  30  20
RATON...........................  46  73  43  71 /  20  20  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  42  72  43  69 /  10  10   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  51  73  51  75 /  50  40  30  20
ROY.............................  53  75  50  72 /  30  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  57  84  53  80 /  30  10  10   0
SANTA ROSA......................  55  83  53  80 /  20   5   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  57  84  54  82 /  30  20  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  55  80  52  81 /  40  20  20   5
PORTALES........................  56  82  54  83 /  30  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  85  54  82 /  30   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  57  89  54  89 /  30   0   5   5
PICACHO.........................  55  83  54  81 /  20   5   0   0
ELK.............................  48  79  49  78 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT MON MAY 17 2010

NMZ501>540-181130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
530 AM MDT MON MAY 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND
BRIEF TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS ALL
THE COUNTIES OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...AS
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AND WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND
BRIEF TORNADOES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...AS THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AND WIND
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS AREA.

IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
HUMIDITIES DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
TORNADOES IN THE COUNTIES OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS
BORDER.

01 BENNETT

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