Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS NOT ALL THAT
FORMIDABLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS THE MORNING MCS HAS PREVENTED
A FULL RECOVERY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS WORKED OVER EVEN THOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 50 KTS ARE
PRESENT. THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN THIS CASE MAY BE MORE
DESTRUCTIVE FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE SUSTAINED WITHIN THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT. COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDE A STRENGTHENING JET AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL
OUT OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. WE THINK THERE WILL BE STORMS...JUST NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. KNOCKED POPS BACK FROM
DEFINITE AND NUMEROUS VALUES OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. GENEROUS COOLING
ALOFT WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE A HAIL THREAT
FOR THESE LOCALES. COULD INEVITABLY PLAY OUT INTO A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WITH A FEW LARGER STONES. FURTHER EAST...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG OR EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS BUT THE THREAT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO KEEP IN THE WX GRIDS. DID COLLABORATE CONCERNS
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

NEXT CONCERN IS SNOW. WILL CERTAINLY SEE COLDER AIR FILTER IN
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST
ACROSS INTERSTATE 40. STILL THINK THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3...PERHAPS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL FALL ABOVE 9000 FEET AND
ESPECIALLY AT THE PEAKS. NO HIGHLIGHTS WARRANTED ATTM. LINGERING
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS
MAINLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BIGGER
STORY REMAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TRENDS CONTINUE
TOWARD A MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
IF ALL PANS OUT BARRING ANY CHANGE...COULD SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL SEASON AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
FREEZES. DETAILS TO FOLLOW IN THE COMING DAYS AHEAD.

KW

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT COILED UP OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL CIRCULATE
BROAD AND ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO BEFORE
EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY. BROAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE STATEWIDE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY CONTG AFT 03Z
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER. STORM MOVEMENT BROADLY TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASING FROM
06Z ONWARD...WITH LOW CIGS DIPPING TO MVFR/IFR AOA BKN/OVC015 FROM
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST AND OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH
ASSOCIATED MT OBSCURATION. SCT CLOUD GROUPS IN TAFS STATEWIDE SIGNAL
TEMPO EXCURSIONS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECK
RETURNING TO BKN050 AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WITH
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN FEATURE PLACEMENT SHOWING UP LATE IN THE
RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEART OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
BEGINS PUSH FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERY OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST WETTING RAIN
COVERAGE OVER SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A 1 TO 2 INCH DUSTING OF SNOW
ABOVE 9000 FEET OVER THESE HIGHER PEAKS AND ADJACENT SLOPES. WITH
COPIOUS LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY STATEWIDE.

FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN BROAD
COOLING TREND AS CLOSED LOW ALOFT CROSSES THE COLORADO LINE EN ROUTE
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WINDS
OVER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 TIJERAS TO SANTA ROSA CORRIDOR. BROAD DRYING TREND
WILL PUSH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S PCT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE DAY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS AND RISING MIXING HEIGHTS. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH POOREST RECOVERY
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE FROM WESTERN
ARIZONA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE FOR
THE DAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH BREEZES INCREASES IN
SPEED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW.
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA WILL VEER WINDS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS SATURDAY WRAPS UP. ANOTHER DOWN TICK IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES...WITH
20S AND 30S PCT COMMON...AND SOME 40S AND 50S NORTH AND WEST IN
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. DIRTY UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SLUICE CLOUD COVER INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. AS RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN
NEW MEXICO...ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL SHIFT TO SANGRE DE CRISTO
SLOPES AND SUMMITS...ADJACENT NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S PCT FOR THE DAY...WITH SOME 40S AND 50S
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. SOME BREEZES
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...BUT COVERAGE AND SPEEDS WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TO NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY IN FAST FLOW REGIME
OVER THE STATE. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE
WILL SUPPORT BREEZY WEST WINDS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 MPH OVER
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON MONDAY. SURFACE
LOW DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL HELP EASE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR REDUCED WIND SPEEDS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES MONDAY BROADLY IN THE 20S PCT UNDER SPEEDIEST WINDS TO
REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW
20S AND TEENS TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW CRITERIA WILL
ALSO REDUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COVERAGE TO ALL BUT LOCAL SPOTS
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROUGH WILL MUSCLE THROUGH NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGING SOUTHWARD
DROPPING WEDNESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...AND BRINGING
SHOWER CHANCES BACK UP STATE WIDE...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE SOUTHBOUND COLD FRONT AND BE BREEZY AT TIMES...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BROADLY IN THE 20S TO STAY ABOVE RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS FOR MIDWEEK.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  59  41  58 /  50  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  33  54  32  55 /  70  50  30  30
CUBA............................  35  54  33  54 /  40  50  20  30
GALLUP..........................  35  56  34  56 /  40  20  10  10
EL MORRO........................  33  54  32  52 /  40  20  10  10
GRANTS..........................  35  58  35  55 /  40  20  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  32  58  34  58 /  40  20   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  38  65  36  67 /  40   5   5   5
CHAMA...........................  32  48  27  47 /  70  60  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  35  58  34  58 /  50  30  20  10
PECOS...........................  36  55  35  56 /  50  20  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  54  30  54 /  60  40  30  10
RED RIVER.......................  30  43  26  47 /  70  40  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  48  26  50 /  70  30  20   5
TAOS............................  36  57  34  57 /  50  30  20  10
MORA............................  34  54  35  54 /  60  20  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  37  64  35  65 /  50  30  20   5
SANTA FE........................  38  58  37  59 /  50  30  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  61  38  61 /  50  20  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  65  42  63 /  40  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  64  44  62 /  40  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  66  39  65 /  40  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  66  40  65 /  30  20  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  68  38  66 /  40  10   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  65  40  64 /  30  20  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  42  69  41  67 /  30   5   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  63  33  62 /  40  20  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  36  64  35  63 /  40  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  61  34  61 /  40  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  36  58  37  58 /  40  20  10   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  61  41  62 /  30  10   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  42  64  40  65 /  20   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  39  56  38  56 /  20   5   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  38  58  38  65 /  50  40  20   0
RATON...........................  38  61  35  66 /  50  30  20   5
SPRINGER........................  43  65  36  67 /  50  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  37  61  38  61 /  50  20  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  44  66  43  73 /  50  20  10   0
ROY.............................  45  64  40  66 /  50  20  10   0
CONCHAS.........................  44  71  43  73 /  50  10   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  42  69  43  70 /  50  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  72  44  74 /  50  10   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  46  72  43  72 /  50  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  45  73  43  74 /  50   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  72  44  73 /  50  10   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  46  75  45  78 /  30   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  40  71  44  70 /  20   5   5   0
ELK.............................  39  65  39  65 /  20   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

17/SHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 AM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

NMZ501>540-221200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
553 AM MDT THU OCT 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE LARGE HAIL AND
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM CLAYTON
TO ROY...LAS VEGAS...CORONA AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...EAST TO
THE TEXAS STATE LINE. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO ONE AND
ONE HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND GUSTS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

40

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