Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING E NOW AS STORM CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS NV
CHURNS SLOWLY E. AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED
OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE FAR W
AND N. STRONG STORM IN UNION COUNTY NOW...AND THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN AREA...ALONG WITH THE FAR EC PLAINS...TO WATCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. IN FACT...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE THE
WEST WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS IT COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STORMS DYNAMICS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE STORM TONIGHT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS WESTERN NM
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL SHOWING A DRY SLOT
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE FOR A GOOD PART OF THU ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...WITH MOSTLY
JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THU
AFTERNOON OVER THE E. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RAMP UP AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE STORM MOVES INTO AZ...THEN REORGANIZES OVER
ERN CO THU NIGHT AND FRI. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS NM LATE TON AND THU...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT COOLER
AIR TO THE W AND CNTRL AREAS THU AND THE FAR E FRI. WINDS COULD
AGAIN BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS FRI PM OVER THE EC PLAINS.

NW FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER WITH JUST
A SLOW WARMUP. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE N
THOUGH...AS ONE OR TWO WEAK SHORT WAVES DROP SE IN THE FLOW. WEAK
RIDGING EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING
A LITTLE COOLING TO THE E ON TUE. NEXT STORM TO IMPACT NM FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER.
THIS AREA WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR VCTS OR TS PREVAILING WOULD BE AT THE GUP AND FMN TERMINAL SITES.
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MTN TOPS OBSCD WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE FLOWS IN.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID NUDGE WINDS UP A
BIT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...
ESPECIALLY FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW HAS NUDGED CLOSER TO THE STATE TODAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND THIS HAS
TRANSLATED TO THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECLINING SOME OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO CROSS OVER THE STATE LATER TONIGHT.
MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS FRONTAL
PUSH WILL CREATE A DISTINCT WIND DIRECTION SHIFT FROM SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...
PRIMARILY NORTHWEST THIRD. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON
THURSDAY AND ACTUALLY COVER THE WESTERN HALF. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD...SO WILL THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THUS...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING THE EASTERN PLAINS. A MUCH
LIGHTER WIND FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AS THERE
WILL BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND LESSENING FREE AIR WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT DEPICTING ANY ONE AREA THAT IS FAVORED FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH EXPECT A INTERMITTENT SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE EASTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PCT WITH THE LOWEST READINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WIND FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS FAVORING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEATHER MODELS ARE DEPICTING A LITTLE
STRONGER WIND FLOW FOR FRIDAY SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
STATE WIDE SO HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PCT. WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE DEPICTING A DRIER SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY
AS NORTH/NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 15 PCT.

A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND WINDS SHOULD BE LESS OVERALL. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME MORE IN LINE WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC SYSTEM PUNCHING
INTO THE WESTERN US THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD BE WARMING/DRYING AND INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A VERY LARGE CLOSED LOW SO ANYTHING CAN
HAPPEN AT THIS TIME AND THIS TREND WILL BE WATCHED.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  38  55  30  57 /  50  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  37  51  27  53 /  60  20  20  20
CUBA............................  34  53  26  49 /  50  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  30  51  26  52 /  50  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  31  50  26  48 /  60  20  30  20
GRANTS..........................  33  54  29  51 /  40  10  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  32  52  26  51 /  50  20  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  35  61  32  57 /  40  20  20  30
CHAMA...........................  32  47  23  47 /  70  30  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  55  27  51 /  40  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  38  54  28  52 /  30  20  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  54  23  50 /  40  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  30  44  22  41 /  50  20  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  27  50  21  44 /  40  20  20  20
TAOS............................  38  56  28  52 /  40  10  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  40  61  33  59 /  30  10  20  10
SANTA FE........................  39  56  29  53 /  40  10  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  40  59  31  54 /  40  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  45  61  36  56 /  30  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  46  62  38  57 /  30  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  63  34  59 /  30  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  62  36  58 /  30  10  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  64  38  61 /  20  10  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  45  62  36  58 /  30  10  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  47  69  38  61 /  20  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  53  26  51 /  30  10  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  36  60  33  55 /  20  10  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  56  30  49 /  20  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  58  35  54 /  10  10  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  64  37  58 /  10  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  42  55  36  46 /  10  20  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  41  62  31  54 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  40  66  31  58 /  30  10  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  57  31  54 /  20  10  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  48  71  37  64 /  30  10  20   5
ROY.............................  47  64  35  58 /  10  10  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  52  73  39  67 /  10  10  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  51  70  39  65 /  10  10  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  52  74  39  68 /  20  10  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  51  70  40  64 /  20  10  20   5
PORTALES........................  52  72  39  67 /  20  10  20   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  72  40  67 /  10   5  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  54  74  41  68 /   5  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  50  69  39  62 /   5  10  10  10
ELK.............................  46  66  38  57 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-502-505-506-508.

&&

40/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
257 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

NMZ501>540-221200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
257 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS EAST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN COLFAX COUNTY TO WESTERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTY OVER TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. LARGE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT WILL LESSEN AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM MDT DUE TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

50

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
303 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

NMZ530-212130-
UNION COUNTY-
303 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...

AT 300 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF KENTON...OR ABOUT 27 MILES NORTH
OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 10300 3688 10299 3678 10299 3677 10300
      3673 10330 3691 10334 3699 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 257DEG 36KT 3685 10318

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

NMZ530-212200-
UNION COUNTY-
329 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM MDT...

AT 326 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF KENTON...OR ABOUT 27 MILES NORTH
OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AROUND 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 10300 3688 10299 3675 10299 3675 10357
      3693 10357 3696 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 268DEG 20KT 3685 10318

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
358 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

NMZ530-212245-
UNION COUNTY-
358 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM MDT...

AT 353 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF SENECA...OR ABOUT 28 MILES
EAST OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 10300 3688 10299 3676 10299 3676 10300
      3677 10351 3698 10353 3700 10300 3699 10299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 263DEG 15KT 3687 10332