Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
744 PM MDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.UPDATE...
ALL IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES CONTINUE
FOR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING ALTHOUGH WANING IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SEVERE WATCH...STRONG SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER CENTRAL AREAS AND WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 8 PM. WILL ALSO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM.

REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. NEW
NPF AND ZFP WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

KW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...446 PM MDT SAT JUN 12 2010...
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES ARE NOW IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM MDT. CHJ

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT SAT JUN 12 2010...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY THEN A GRADUAL DRYING TREND.

STORMS STARTING TO FIRE OVER NE NM ALONG AND N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT DIPPED A BIT FARTHER S AND W THAN IT DID
FRI PM. CURRENTLY FRONT JUST S OF TUCUMCARI...E OF LAS VEGAS
AND W OF RATON. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S S AND W OF THE
FRONT WHILE IN THE 50S TO 60 N AND E. THIS SHARP BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS POTENTIALLY TURNING SEVERE.
GOOD CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -7. MORE STABLE TO THE N
OF THE FRONT...BUT THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE LATER
THIS PM AND EVE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH MINIMAL TORNADO
THREAT.

STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING
STRONG STORMS COULD CONTINUE OR FORM ALL NIGHT IN THE NE. LATEST
RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN THREAT A LITTLE TO THE E...ALONG THE
NOSE OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY IMPACT
THE TX PANHANDLE BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FAR EC AND NE NM.

SIMILAR SCENARIO SHAPING UP FOR SUN IN THE NE WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO BE FARTHER S THAN TODAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NE QUARTER OF THE STATE.
TRENDED MAXES DOWN A BIT FOR SUN IN THE NE BUT PROBABLY NOT NEAR
ENOUGH GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY. EARLY SUN AM SHIFT MAY NEED
TO LOWER SOME MORE. MEANWHILE MUCH OF THE W AND S SHOULD BE
RAINFREE AS A GOOD MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA.

COLD FRONT TO DRIVE S AND W SUN NIGHT WITH AN E WIND LIKELY INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ANOTHER SURGE
LIKELY MON NIGHT. ADDED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE DIVIDE TO THE W SLOPES OF THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY TUE PM
AND EVE...IF NOT MON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD END UP BEING OF
THE DRY VARIETY WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUING TO BE A CONE RN.
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS NOW FORECAST FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS THE SW FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO A STORM MOVING ONTO THE
W COAST. MODELS NOT ALL ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO THOUGH SO
CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY AS IS THROUGH 800 PM MDT. CHJ

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN UT TO SWING THROUGH FOUR
CORNERS REGION TONIGHT/SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45
KTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THRU 02Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ALONG AND NORTH
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE KLVS VCNTY TO KTCC...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 KTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z...THEN LOOK FOR AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. FROM APPROXIMATELY GLENWOOD
TO KFMN-KLAM AND KSKX...MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN
WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA G40KT.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...CONSIDERED CANCELING THE WARNING FOR ZONE 104 AS THE
SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH TO APPROXIMATELY KLVS-KTCC
LINE...BUT LIKELY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE ZONE EXPERIENCING
RED FLAG...OR CLOSE TO...RED FLAG CONDITIONS. LIKEWISE...THE
REGION FROM THE CHUSKAS THRU FARMINGTON...PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES
AND NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WON/T LIKELY SEE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE WARNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED. OTHERWISE...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM.

THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS THRU CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST FROM
THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND
PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHEAST WIND
AND SOME BETTER OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN HUMIDITIES ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS BORDER. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS
MOISTURE TO COME ROARING BACK SOUTH AND WESTWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE MAY
REACH THE CONTDVD BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN FARTHER WEST...ON GUSTY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME MIX OUT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE.

LONGER TERM...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL SHUNT MOISTURE
EASTWARD...CONFINING IT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...AND PUSHING IT TO THE TEXAS BORDER THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 6 IS FORECASTED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON......................  47  76  46  80 /  30  20  20  10
DULCE...........................  40  72  38  74 /  40  20  20  10
CUBA............................  40  74  41  77 /  20  10  10   5
GALLUP..........................  38  74  37  78 /  20   5   5   5
EL MORRO........................  39  72  35  76 /  10   5   5   5
GRANTS..........................  39  77  38  80 /  10   5   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  38  76  38  82 /  10   5   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  49  84  51  88 /   5   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  40  67  36  70 /  40  30  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  75  42  77 /  10  10  10  10
PECOS...........................  42  76  41  75 /  10  10  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  43  71  38  73 /  20  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  43  61  39  62 /  30  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  65  41  64 /  40  30  20  10
TAOS............................  40  74  37  75 /  20  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  49  81  50  83 /  10  10   5  10
SANTA FE........................  43  77  42  78 /  10  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  48  79  45  80 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  52  80  53  83 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  55  82  56  84 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  52  84  56  85 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  53  83  56  84 /   5  10   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  52  85  55  86 /   5   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  54  83  56  84 /   5  10   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  52  87  55  89 /   5   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  49  77  49  77 /  10  10   5  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  81  45  83 /   5   5   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  47  77  46  76 /  10   5   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  81  46  84 /   5   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  54  86  55  87 /   5   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  53  77  52  75 /   5   5   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  48  74  46  67 /  50  40  30  10
RATON...........................  47  77  46  73 /  50  30  30  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  76  43  72 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  54  79  51  75 /  50  40  30  20
ROY.............................  56  79  52  73 /  50  30  30  10
CONCHAS.........................  57  89  56  82 /  40  20  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  56  89  57  82 /  20  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  90  55  83 /  40  20  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  61  91  56  82 /  30  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  63  93  59  84 /  30  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  59  93  58  84 /  20  10  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  62  97  61  90 /  10  10  10  10
PICACHO.........................  57  91  57  86 /  10   5   0  10
ELK.............................  55  84  52  83 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
556 AM MDT SAT JUN 12 2010

NMZ501>540-131200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
556 AM MDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CREATE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AREAS SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS
STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING....AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THEREAFTER...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...GENERALLY NORTH
OF A TUCUMCARI TO RATON LINE...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

41

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