Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MDT WED APR 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DRY UPPER
WAVE OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO ADVANCING NE TOWARD NM. A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE OVER
EDDY COUNTY AND IS STRENGTHENING AS IT ADVANCES NE INTO CHAVES
COUNTY. CURRENT GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT SOLID LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO OUT
PERFORM THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL SUITE. UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS THE NAM HAS BECOME THE OUTLIER NOW AND THE GFS IS ON TARGET
WITH THE EURO. A STRONG DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
FROM ROUGHLY RATON SOUTH AND EAST TO CLINES CORNERS AND CORONA.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. A
BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE/HEAVY QPF NUMBERS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT THEREFORE THE MAIN ISSUE MAY
BE MINOR FLOODING...WITH A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. WILL RAMP
UP QPF NUMBERS IN GRIDS AND HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. 00Z GFS/ECMWF SLIDE
THE ACTIVITY EAST INTO TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOSH THE
DRY LINE BACK TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THURSDAY. INSTABILITY IS MORE
LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL INDUCE
STORMS AND ALLOW TO DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS.

INTERESTINGLY...THE UPPER WAVE THAT PUSHED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
FORCE A SURFACE BOUNDARY DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT EAST INTO NM OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD QPF EVENT OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA LATE FRIDAY
INTO PERHAPS LATE SATURDAY. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL
WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN.

QPF NUMBERS WITH THIS EVENT MAY PUSH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS
OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME SERIOUS PROBLEMS WITH RAIN ON SNOWPACK. WILL KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM BRIEFLY SUNDAY....WITH ANOTHER POTENTIALLY VERY WET SYSTEM
SLIDING OVER THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY. GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
WDSPRD MVFR...LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY BR
WILL PERSIST FROM EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER THRU 18Z. IN ADDITION...SCT TSRA/SHRA OVER GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THROUGH 15Z...THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AFT 18Z...WHERE ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THRU 02Z THURSDAY. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...VFR...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IN THE EAST MAY RESULT IN GUSTY
EAST WINDS BELOW CANYONS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN THE WEST...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN IN THE PAST 2 DAYS.
HOWEVER...VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS.

SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN THE EAST MAY SEEP INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR
THE MOST PART...WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE STATE AND A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
WETTER WEATHER AROUND THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  72  37  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  68  28  71  35 /   0   0   0   5
CUBA............................  70  30  72  35 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  69  25  74  32 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  68  30  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  72  28  74  38 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  72  29  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  76  38  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  64  29  66  31 /   0   5  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  68  39  68  39 /   5  20  10  10
PECOS...........................  69  40  70  39 /  10  30  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  66  34  64  37 /  10  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  59  30  59  32 /  20  30  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  31  61  34 /  20  30  30  30
TAOS............................  68  36  69  39 /   5  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  77  41  76  42 /   0  10   5  10
SANTA FE........................  70  41  70  42 /   5  20  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  72  43  73  44 /   5  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  74  47  74  49 /   5  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  76  50  76  52 /   5  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  77  51  77  52 /   0  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  77  49  77  50 /   0  10   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  78  42  78  45 /   0  10   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  76  49  76  49 /   5  10   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  78  50  79  50 /   0   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  38  68  40 /  20  30  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  40  71  42 /  20  30  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  38  68  40 /  20  40  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  42  72  47 /  10  20  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  45  74  48 /   5  10  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  62  40  65  40 /  40  40  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  64  41  64  44 /  30  40  30  50
RATON...........................  70  42  69  42 /  20  30  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  65  40  65  40 /  20  40  30  40
CLAYTON.........................  68  47  70  47 /  50  50  40  50
ROY.............................  65  48  68  48 /  60  50  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  68  49  74  49 /  60  60  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  68  52  73  49 /  60  60  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  70  51  75  47 /  60  60  40  30
CLOVIS..........................  68  50  71  50 /  60  70  40  30
PORTALES........................  69  51  72  51 /  60  70  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  50  72  51 /  60  60  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  72  52  74  52 /  60  60  30  10
PICACHO.........................  69  51  71  50 /  60  50  30  20
ELK.............................  63  47  68  48 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GUYER/99

CORRECTED TYPOS IN PUBLIC DISCUSSION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
434 AM MDT WED APR 14 2010

NMZ501>540-151200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
434 AM MDT WED APR 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. MINOR FLOODING
MAY OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT ALL
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE...WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE
TO GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SPOTTERS CAN CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TO REPORT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL
OR LARGER AT 1-888-386-7637...OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ TO SUBMIT A
STORM REPORT.

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1247 PM MDT WED APR 14 2010

NMZ522-523-141915-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
1247 PM MDT WED APR 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TORRANCE COUNTY
THROUGH 115 PM MDT...

AT 1245 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ENCINO...OR ABOUT 24 MILES
NORTHWEST OF VAUGHN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN TORRANCE COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3484 10571 3504 10559 3502 10532 3462 10552
      3469 10572
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 206DEG 13KT 3480 10556

KW