Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
630 PM MDT SUN JUN 6 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ZONES TO INCLUDE SEVERE T STORM WATCH NUMBER 275 FOR NE
AND PORTION OF E CENTRAL NM EFFECTIVE TIL 1 AM MDT...ALSO TO
EXPIRE HEAT ADVISORY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT SUN JUN 6 2010...

...MORE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO FALL THROUGH LATE TODAY...

DESPITE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A FEW RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN. THE ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT HIGH TEMP SO
FAR OF 99 DEGREES BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FROM 1996. GALLUPS
HIGH SO FAR OF 94 DEGREES BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FROM 2006.
THE EASTERN PLAINS HAVE COOLED THE MOST TODAY HOWEVER READINGS
ARE STILL IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100F. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO EXPIRE.

WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE MORE HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CWA UNLESS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 105 TO 110 RANGE AGAIN THIS SUMMER...GIVEN
THE HEAT CRITERIA WAS ALREADY STRETCHED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FIRST
BIG SUDDEN ONSET OF HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS IN QUITE SOME TIME.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO INCREASE EVENING
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PER LATEST RADAR
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE CELLS ON RADAR APPEAR TO LOOK
STRONG AT TIMES...VISUAL OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW RAWS SITES INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY IS A MIX OF WET AND DRY AS EXPECTED. STORMS THAT
TRACK FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NE PLAINS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME TO BECOME SEVERE AS BETTER SHEAR AND DEEPER MOISTURE EXIST
IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
LATE TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE NAM THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ORIENTED IN A MORE NE TO SW DIRECTION ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STRETCHED TO OUR SE. THIS WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL WET/DRY STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY ELSEWHERE.

MODELS DO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN TUESDAY ALMOST ALL
THE WAY TO THE TX STATE LINE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE RECORDS POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SW FLOW TO INCREASE OVER NM BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OVER NM SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY 10 TO 15F DEGREES BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS.

GUYER

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THROUGH MID EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS AOA 40
KTS AND HAIL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGER CELLS WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
CB AND VCTS REMARKS AT KLVS...KSAF...KABQ...KTCC AND KROW. HIGHEST
THREAT AREA LATER THIS EVENING TO BE FOCUSED FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRES TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE WEST WITH EAST CANYON WINDS
EXPECTED INTO KSAF AND KABQ AND POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE FROM KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW. ADDITIONAL HIGH TERRAIN STORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. KW

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING WITH
DRY STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE WET STORMS IGNITING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND IMPACTING THE
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. GUSTY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SURGE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE GAPS AND INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL YIELD GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE WEST ON MONDAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE HOLDING SWAY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO
THE TEXAS BORDER. EXPECT HAINES INDICES OF 5 AND 6 OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN LOCALES. A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR WET ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. LAL VALUES OF 2 AND 3.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO OOZE INTO THE NORTHEAST
BY EARLY TUESDAY WHILE MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE CWFA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST.

KW

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1031 AM MDT SUN JUN 6 2010

NMZ501>540-071200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
1031 AM MDT SUN JUN 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH NEW RECORD
HIGHS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...NORTHWEST PLATEAU...SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A
LITTLE OVER 100 DEGREES. PLEASE REVIEW THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY
FOR MORE DETAILS.

FURTHER...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES AND NEW RECORDS
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS...CENTRAL VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AGAIN POSE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP GRADUALLY CLOSER TO NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS
MAY PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY...OR
SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS POTENTIALLY REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GUYER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>