Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 AM MDT SAT APR 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE WINDS WILL KICK UP TO BREEZY EVEN LOCALLY WINDY LEVELS TODAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER OTHERWISE WILL BE THE
CASE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST FROM THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN...THOUGH
SUNDAY PARTS OF WESTERN NM WILL SEE SPEEDS APPROACH WITHIN 5 OR 10
MPH OF THOSE JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. WINDS WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE MON...WITH A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING INTO THE LOW END HIGH WIND CRITERIA
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THEY ARE LIKELY TO COME DOWN
AT LEAST A LITTLE TUE...BUT STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY NEARLY ALL OF
THE AREA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE COURTESY OF A SHORT WAVE
COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT ALSO OF A
PRETTY STOUT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE.
LOW POPS FOR SOME MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO STILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR NW AND NORTHERN
MTNS REGION. SOME COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEMS PASSAGE.
EXPECT SOME UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO NM BY MIDWEEK...
AIDING A WARMUP AND LIGHTER WINDS.

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&&

.AVIATION...
BROAD WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING CLOUD AOA BKN/OVC150 ACROSS NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING
OVER SUMMITS AND EAST SLOPES OF SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WITH G40KT POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AT 01Z.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
REDEVELOP LOCALLY OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WEST WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY SETS TABLE FOR
AFTERNOON WESTERLY GUSTS ACROSS SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND THE
SACRAMENTOS. BROAD WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE NORTHEAST
AND EASTERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING CONTINUING PAST SUNSET. FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...STRONG FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING OVER EASTERN NM. WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EASE SUNDAY WIND SPEEDS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW...AS AREAL
COVERAGE AND DURATION SEEM SOMEWHAT REDUCED THIS ROUND. WARMING
TREND LEVELING OFF WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO VERY DRY HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS...TEENS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NOW REACHING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POOR
TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT
BACKED TO SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE TO GIVE FULL SOLAR POWER TO MIX
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MEET UP WITH WIDESPREAD
HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO PRODUCE BROAD
AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WITH ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AFFECTED. FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FIRE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BROADLY MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AND
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS SET UP
BROADLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE. QUICK TEMPERATURE REBOUND
WEDNESDAY WITH NEARLY STEADY HUMIDITIES...BUT WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY WILL DROP WIND SPEEDS AS WINDS SLOW DOWN
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. ON
THURSDAY...WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  56  23  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  58  24  67  27 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  62  26  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  62  26  66  27 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  64  25  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  64  25  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  34  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  51  18  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  28  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  63  28  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  55  22  63  27 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  50  22  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  20  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  57  26  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  67  29  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  60  28  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  62  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  41  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  36  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  40  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  70  36  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  67  39  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  73  40  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  32  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  65  32  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  62  33  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  65  36  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  70  41  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  64  38  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  63  32  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  63  27  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  61  32  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  70  35  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  65  35  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  74  39  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  73  38  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  38  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  72  39  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  75  39  85  45 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  75  39  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  78  42  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  73  43  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  68  40  78  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ102>109.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-523-526-527-529.

&&

43/SHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI APR 2 2010

CORRECTION TO PRODUCT EXPIRATION TIME IMMEDIATELY BELOW.

NMZ501>540-031200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT FRI APR 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND
GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH FROM THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS EAST TO
GUADALUPE COUNTY AND SOUTH TO EASTERN SOCORRO AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...NECESSITATING A WIND ADVISORY. A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
EAST AND ON TO THE TEXAS LINE VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE WITH
THE WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THUS A RED
FLAG WARNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THEIR
OWN STRONG WIND GUSTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY AND
RED FLAG WARNING STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST AND
MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR
HIGHER WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO REACH 60 MPH OR BRIEFLY HIGHER MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY
LOWER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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