Red Flag Warning 30, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
636 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT AIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS
EXITING NEW MEXICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

NEW PFM AND ZFP OUT SHORTLY.

KW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2010...
ITS BEEN AN ACTIVE MORNING WITH EARLIER DISCRETE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO WHAT IS NOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS OF 09Z. STORMS ARE CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE IN LARGE PART TO A DECENT JET AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. HAVE
INSERTED SOME POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE SHORT TERM.

FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 00Z/16 NAM-WRF WHICH HOLDS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER WEST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND
RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. THINK THE DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN UP IN VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHEAR FOCUSED RIGHT ALONG THE
EAST. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE AXIS
WILL SET UP BUT HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND
BUMPED UP POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF
WET AND DRY STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EAST WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT
POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HWO ISSUANCE.

FROM THE RIO GRANDE AND POINTS WEST...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. MAV GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
AT KGUP WITH OTHER LOCALES IN THE STATE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH. WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER INSPECTION.

MOISTURE APPEARS TO MIX FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH A SIMILAR STORY FOR FRIDAY. ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WITH EVEN A FEW CENTURY MARK READINGS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
POSSIBLE.

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE OUTLOOK SHOWS A PATTERN SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE JUNE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES...COULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK. WE'LL SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

KW

KW

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE
ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF PREVIOUS
WETTING RAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS COULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FARTHER NORTHEAST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND ALSO INTO
SOME OF THE EAST SLOPES AND PLAINS SOUTH OF I-40. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE AND WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL TOWARD SUNRISE...BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND INITIATES OFF OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KT.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAY...SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL FOR MID TO LATE JUNE. SOME CHANGES
ARE UNFOLDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...NAMELY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. LONG-LIVED CLUSTERS OF ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE LOOKING TO MITIGATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS ZONES 104 AND 108. HEFTY WETTING
RAINS IN ZONE 104 SHOULD CERTAINLY KEEP EVEN THE 1 HOUR FUELS MOIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AIDE OF PERSISTENT
ONGOING STORMS AND LIKELY LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. MODEL DEWPOINTS
ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS QUICKLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF ZONE 108 DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PORTRAYED TO BE A BIT FARTHER WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE TO
REDEVELOP. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO BITE THE BULLET AND CANCEL THE RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR 104 AND 108.

ELSEWHERE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING TO BE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WILL BE A BIT MARGINAL ON CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE
AREA...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 TO 35 MPH WILL
PROBABLY AWAKE ANY SLEEPERS OR SMALLER FIRES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VERY UNSTABLE WITH RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT
TO RELAX SOME...BUT STILL RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SURFACE LOW WOULD BE ORIENTING ITSELF IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THUS
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD SHAPE UP IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...SO WILL HOIST WATCH FOR
THERE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON NORTHEAST PLAINS 104 DUE TO ANTICIPATED
PRECIP TODAY AND EXPECTED MOIST FUELS. EVEN ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN THE FAR EAST AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON......................  90  51  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  85  41  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  86  45  83  43 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  85  43  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  88  45  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  85  45  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  91  56  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  79  40  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  45  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  85  49  83  50 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  45  78  46 /   0   0   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  71  46  69  51 /   0   0   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  75  47  73  52 /   5   0   5   5
TAOS............................  84  46  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  91  52  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  86  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  52  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  93  59  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  58  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  94  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  95  58  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  94  57  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  95  59  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  87  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  51  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  85  55  85  58 /  10   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  53  88  57 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  60  91  62 /   5   0   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  81  59  81  59 /  20  10  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  83  55  85  55 /  10   5   0   5
RATON...........................  88  50  88  50 /  10   5   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  84  53  85  52 /  10   0   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  90  61  94  59 /  20  10   5  10
ROY.............................  87  60  89  61 /  10   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  96  64  98  63 /  20  10  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  94  61  96  61 /  10   0  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  97  67  99  67 /  30  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  93  65  94  65 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  94  67  95  66 /  30  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  96  65  97  66 /  20  20  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  97  67  98  68 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  93  63  95  62 /  10  10  20  10
ELK.............................  88  60  88  60 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>103-105>107-109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ103.

&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

NMZ501>540-171200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
604 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEST TO THE ARIZONA BORDER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY.
ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS... WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
COUNTIES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HAIL SIZE...WIND IMPACTS AND MEASURED WIND
SPEEDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ...TOLL FREE TO 888.386.7637...OR VIA AMATEUR
RADIO.

17

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