Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 AM MDT THU AUG 5 2010

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE JEMEZ
MTS EASTWARD TO SANTA FE...LAS VEGAS...THEN EAST ALONG INTERSTATE 40
TO TUCUMCARI. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. UPDATED POPS TO CHANCE FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE 18Z.
ACTIVITY WILL FURTHER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VCNTY OF THE
BNDRY WHERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 AM MDT THU AUG 5 2010...
THE 00Z PWAT VALUE AT KABQ WAS ONLY 0.59 INCHES OR ROUGHLY AT THE
15TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE SURFACE BNDRY AIDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS SURGED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GAPS AND NOW GOES BLENDED PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR 1 INCH. SE UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THIS BNDRY HAS ALLOWED PERSISTENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE JEMEZ MTS AND PUSH EAST. OTHER STORMS WERE
ALSO NOTED ALONG INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF KTCC.

MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER SE NM/WEST TX HAS MOVED VERY
LITTLE. THE OVERALL SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER TODAY
THAN WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. 00Z NAM/GFS
MODELS BOTH HINT AT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREAS
ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
HIGH CHANCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY LITTLE HOWEVER
A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS AND CREEPS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A DEEP MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
ADVECT NORTH ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS IS INDICATED VERY WELL BY THE
NAM/GFS 850-500MB THETA-E INSTABILITY AXIS PARKED OVER CENTRAL NM.
PWAT VALUES WILL SURGE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS
MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASING
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORCED WELL EAST INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE AS WELL AS PUSH THE MOIST PLUME EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY THE GFS SHOWS A DEEP UPPER
LOW RETROGRADING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS OVER NM. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY
ALLOW FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND STATEWIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY GAP WIND OVER KABQ WILL PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z WITH
SFC SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING FROM THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS
EAST TO KSAF...KLVS AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 TO KTCC. THE ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH WITH A BREAK EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FAVORING THE JEMEZ...SANDIA MANZANO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AOA 40
KTS AND SMALL HAIL. THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER
SUNSET AND ESPECIALLY BY MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR ANOTHER
EAST WIND LATER TONIGHT BUT ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. KW

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SURGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT
STATEWIDE AND VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
OR MIX BACK TO THE NORTH DURING TODAY.

WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE JEMEZ AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE LAL
VALUES OF 4 AND 5 ARE FORECAST. SLOW STORM MOTIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED BUT THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

A SLIGHT JOG OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST IS STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST BUT A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED WETTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO
SHIFT EAST INTO TEXAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE
COMMON EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS.

LONG RANGE GFS INDICATES INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BEFORE THE
PATTERN TRIES TO SHIFT THE RIDGE BACK OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE SHOULD REMAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED WETTING RAINS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.

KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON......................  91  62  92  61 /  30  30  30  20
DULCE...........................  84  50  83  50 /  30  40  30  30
CUBA............................  85  52  85  52 /  50  50  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  52  86  54 /  40  30  30  30
EL MORRO........................  83  54  82  52 /  30  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  87  55  86  54 /  40  40  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  84  55  84  54 /  30  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  91  58  89  60 /  20  20  20  30
CHAMA...........................  78  49  79  50 /  50  50  40  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  60  82  59 /  40  50  30  30
PECOS...........................  79  57  82  55 /  50  60  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  78  50  76  50 /  50  50  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  75  45  76  46 /  70  60  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  75  45  76  46 /  70  60  40  30
TAOS............................  81  53  82  53 /  40  50  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  90  56  89  58 /  30  40  20  30
SANTA FE........................  86  58  86  56 /  40  50  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  88  60  89  58 /  30  50  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  64  88  64 /  30  50  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  67  91  66 /  30  50  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  63  92  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  92  64  91  64 /  30  50  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  93  62  92  62 /  30  40  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  90  64  89  63 /  30  50  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  94  64  94  64 /  20  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  85  54  85  54 /  40  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  57  88  57 /  40  60  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  58  83  58 /  40  50  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  89  59  88  60 /  30  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  62  91  62 /  20  20  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  79  56  79  56 /  30  30  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  80  55  81  54 /  70  60  30  20
RATON...........................  85  54  87  56 /  50  40  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  82  56  84  56 /  50  40  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  88  64  92  64 /  30  40  20  10
ROY.............................  85  61  89  61 /  40  50  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  91  66  92  68 /  30  30  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  91  63  91  63 /  30  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  66  96  67 /  30  30  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  90  66  92  66 /  20  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  92  65  92  66 /  20  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  94  66  94  67 /  20  30  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  96  69  97  68 /  20  10  10  10
PICACHO.........................  90  64  90  63 /  20  20  10  20
ELK.............................  84  59  85  59 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GUYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT THU AUG 5 2010

NMZ501>540-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
548 AM MDT THU AUG 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR
FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GUYER

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