Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT WED JUN 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH STRONGEST
WINDS STILL LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE...BUT ONLY SEEING 40 TO 50KT PER 35-40KFT ACARS DATA. FRONT
PLUNGED SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE NOON...BUT AS EXPECTED A
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS SINCE ESTABLISHED
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL
HOLDS SOME DEFINITION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE.
THUS...MOISTURE IS FIGHTING ITS WAY WESTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH CONVECTION LIGHTING UP THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

STEERING FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
AND THIS WILL POSE A HURDLE FOR CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. RATHER CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON ANY LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE WHICH
LOOKS TO BE TAKING PLACE ALREADY IN EASTERN CHAVES COUNTY. WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE A DECENT GAP WIND DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNSET IN FAVORED
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF ALBUQUERQUE METRO
AREA. CONVECTION TO THE EAST COULD ALSO DICTATE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THIS. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF DRY STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF SOCORRO COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS ONGOING INTO EARLY MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL HAVE ADVANCED BEYOND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...CARRYING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THESE
AREAS. WINDS ALOFT AND CONSEQUENTLY THE STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK AS THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES MORE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
ZONES...BUT STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WILL
BE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER
HIGH AND MOISTURE FIELDS.

SOME TROUGHINESS IS ADVERTISED TO THE WEST OF NEW MEXICO BY
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNGRADE THE WIND FIELDS WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND THE GFS EVEN LOOKS TO
CUT OFF A VERY WEAK LOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT COULD USHER IN
SOME DRIER AIR THAT COULD REDUCE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE
WESTERN ZONES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD SNEAK INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY KEEPING MOISTURE IN
TACT IN THE EAST. BY BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE HIGH BECOMES
BROADLY PRESENT OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO CYCLE/RECYCLE ITSELF FOR DIURNAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH MID WEEK.

52

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ON EAST WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 KT
THROUGH 03Z OVER GILA REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS AND LATEST OBS STILL INDICATING AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO A WETTER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER PATTERN AS A SURFACE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RUSH THROUGH THE
CANYONS AND PASSES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EAST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FORM BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OF THE DRY VARIETY WITH SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS TO 50KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EXCEPT WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE STABLE. RH RECOVERIES THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT EXCEPT WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

SOME DRYING AND WARMING MAY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT IT NOW APPEARS MOISTURE MAY BE REPLENISHED LATER
SUNDAY...TRANSPORTED BY ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT. EXTENDED MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER AT LEAST THAT PART OF THE STATE.

CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  98  61  94 /   0   5  10  10
DULCE...........................  45  86  49  84 /   0  20  30  20
CUBA............................  49  86  51  85 /  10  20  20  30
GALLUP..........................  44  93  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EL MORRO........................  46  87  51  82 /   5  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  50  92  54  86 /  10  30  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  49  89  53  84 /   5  20  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  54  93  60  90 /  10  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  47  82  49  79 /  10  20  40  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  84  61  82 /  30  30  20  40
PECOS...........................  56  85  53  83 /  40  30  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  83  51  81 /  20  20  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  44  73  48  74 /  40  40  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  75  47  77 /  40  30  20  30
TAOS............................  53  86  53  85 /  30  30  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  55  92  57  90 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  56  88  57  87 /  40  30  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  90  59  89 /  30  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  91  65  89 /  30  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  93  67  91 /  20  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  95  69  93 /  20  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  94  68  92 /  20  20  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  94  63  93 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  65  92  65  90 /  20  20  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  66  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  85  54  85 /  30  30  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  87  57  88 /  30  30  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  83  56  85 /  40  30  20  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  87  58  85 /  30  30  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  65  91  63  88 /  20  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  60  80  58  78 /  30  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  82  52  86 /  30  30  20  30
RATON...........................  57  87  54  89 /  40  30  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  81  53  85 /  40  30  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  62  88  63  93 /  30  30  20  20
ROY.............................  60  86  61  90 /  40  30  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  66  91  67  95 /  40  30  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  63  86  66  91 /  40  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  88  67  95 /  40  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  66  88  64  91 /  40  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  65  89  65  92 /  30  20  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  90  65  93 /  40  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  93  68  95 /  30  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  64  89  64  89 /  30  30  20  20
ELK.............................  62  84  61  84 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

52/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT WED JUN 23 2010

NMZ501>540-241200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
541 AM MDT WED JUN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT
MAY PRODUCE DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND
MINOR FLOODING. HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GUYER

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