Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CIRCULATION ANALYZED OVER SE AZ THIS MORNING
TO MEANDER AROUND NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE APPARENTLY
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND EAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO CONTINUE TO BE
STRETCHED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST
INTO EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CWA-WIDE
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE
WIDESPREAD INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND MAY BECOME THE AREA
LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE HIGH POPS
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RELOCATES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...NEW
MEXICO WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...AND AS THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER HIGH DIMINISH.  SO BY
MIDWEEK...IT LOOKS AS IF AN UPSWING IN CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST STATES WITH UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL LOW OVER THE TEXAS
COAST WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT SOUTH TO NORTH TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PERIOD.
CURRENTLY CARRYING PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA IN TAFS...INCLUDING
KABQ...KSAF...KLVS...TCC AND ROW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL LOCATIONS
BUT ROSWELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS
WELL. GUSTY OUTFLOWS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.
PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A REPEAT FOR
SUNDAY MOST AREAS BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY FEW CHANGES TO FIRE WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MONSOONAL BURST PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER ARIZONA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROPICAL TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS COAST.  BACK DOOR FRONT
CURRENTLY WELL INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WITH AMPLE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE EAST ALREADY SEEING EAST GAP WINDS INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA.
MIN RH VALUES TODAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 40 MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND AT SURFACE WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL KEEP WETTING RAIN...SOME HEAVY...THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.  EAST CANYON WINDS
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH MODEST INCREASE
IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE WEST BUT MOISTURE ALREADY QUITE HIGH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN...SOME HEAVY WITH LOCAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...WITH A DOWN TICK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST

BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS TO THE WEST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. LOOKS LIKE A REDUCTION IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND QPF ON MONDAY...WITH WESTERN NEW MEXICO FAVORED.

UPPER HIGH TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST DURING THE WORKWEEK BUT WILL STAY
CENTERED EAST OF THE STATE.  DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN WITH
SLIGHT DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS BUT GENERALLY WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS
FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.  EXPECT GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES...LOW HAINES AND A MONSOONISH PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  60  89  61  92 /  50  30  40  20
DULCE...........................  53  82  54  85 /  60  40  60  20
CUBA............................  55  82  54  83 /  80  70  60  20
GALLUP..........................  59  82  57  85 /  70  30  50  20
EL MORRO........................  56  77  53  80 /  70  50  60  30
GRANTS..........................  58  80  56  83 /  80  60  70  30
QUEMADO.........................  54  80  54  81 /  80  80  70  40
GLENWOOD........................  60  84  59  84 /  80  80  70  40
CHAMA...........................  50  74  47  80 /  70  50  60  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  78  58  86 /  80  80  70  30
PECOS...........................  55  73  53  80 /  80  70  60  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  73  51  81 /  80  70  60  20
RED RIVER.......................  47  65  46  72 /  80  70  60  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  66  46  75 /  90  70  60  40
TAOS............................  55  75  52  83 /  80  70  70  20
ESPANOLA........................  59  79  59  84 /  80  70  70  20
SANTA FE........................  57  74  53  82 /  80  60  70  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  77  56  84 /  80  60  70  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  76  62  84 /  80  60  70  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  79  63  84 /  80  60  70  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  81  61  86 /  80  50  70  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  81  63  85 /  80  60  70  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  82  64  87 /  90  70  70  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  80  63  85 /  80  60  70  20
SOCORRO.........................  61  82  62  85 /  90  70  60  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  74  57  79 /  80  70  70  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  74  59  81 /  90  60  60  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  71  57  78 /  90  70  50  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  75  59  82 /  80  80  50  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  81  60  84 /  80  70  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  55  73  56  73 /  90  80  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  55  70  52  82 /  80  70  60  30
RATON...........................  58  72  54  85 /  80  80  60  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  73  54  80 /  90  70  50  30
CLAYTON.........................  61  79  60  87 /  90  60  50  20
ROY.............................  59  77  58  84 /  90  70  50  30
CONCHAS.........................  63  82  62  89 /  80  60  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  82  63  89 /  80  60  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  85  65  91 /  80  50  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  85  64  86 /  60  20  20  10
PORTALES........................  65  85  64  88 /  60  20  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  86  66  88 /  80  50  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  65  87  66  89 /  80  40  10  10
PICACHO.........................  60  80  60  84 /  80  70  20  10
ELK.............................  58  74  57  78 /  90  80  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>540.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT SAT JUL 24 2010

NMZ501>540-251200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
549 AM MDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN AT RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY
ALSO IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT FLASH FLOODING AT 1.888.386.7637.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
236 PM MDT SAT JUL 24 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W PORTALES            34.18N 103.43W
07/24/2010                   ROOSEVELT          NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE AREA OF 1 FT DEEP WATER ALONG HIGHWAY 267 BETWEEN
            MILEMARKERS 6 AND 8. ROAD IMPASSIBLE. FLOODING BEGAN AT
            1245 PM AND CONTINUES AS OF 230 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002109

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
443 PM MDT SAT JUL 24 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 ENE ALBUQUERQUE       35.16N 106.50W
07/24/2010                   BERNALILLO         NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FLOODED INTERSECTION AT SAN FRANCISCO AND BARSTOW.
            TRAFFIC STOPPED DUE TO FLOWING WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002110

SHY