Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...GRADUALLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG LOW OFFSHORE OF THE PACNW. THE SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE/WARMING
ALOFT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA EVIDENCED
BY A MUCH SLOWER START TO THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHERE SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOA
2000 J/KG. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY/S THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EC/NE NEW MEXICO. ALTHOUGH SPEED SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SUFFICIENT
TURNING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
ORGANIZIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
WELL AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PREEXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR INTERACT WITH IT. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS JUST BEFORE PRESS TIME TO FINE
TUNE COVERAGE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS FOR
EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THURSDAY IS DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST THE DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS TREND FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND WITH WEAKENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE
SCOURING POTENTIAL IS MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. IF WE CAN
GENERATE SOME DECENT COLD POOLS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THIS EVENING...THEN THE WESTWARD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AT REACHING THE DIVIDE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS TONIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND CONTDVD THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS WAS THE MOST
AGRESSIVE WITH THE COMPENSATORY HEIGHT RISES MENTIONED ABOVE...INDICATING
A CLOSED 588 DAM CONTOUR OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO
BY 00Z FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL GREATLY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON THURSDAY AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED POPS RELEGATED TO THE EAST SLOPES AREA WITH NO MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR EC/SE PLAINS GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
STRONGER CAP.

THE PACNW LOW MOVES INLAND LATE FRIDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS MAY
WELL SET UP A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN CONVECTION FOR WC/NW AREAS TO INCLUDE THE
JEMEZ/SOUTHERN SAN JUANS. SO FRIDAY LOOKING MORE ACTIVE THAN
THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SCRUBBED FROM
WESTERN AREAS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE EAST. BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY COULD REJUVINATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EC/NE
FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH DRY /SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE WEST.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR AND SHORT DURATION IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING. THE MOST
BULLISH SITES APPEAR TO BE TCC AND ROW AND A LESSER EXTENT LVS.
PLACED A CB MENTION IN BOTH THE SAF AND ABQ TAF FORECASTS FOR A FEW
HOUR PERIOD. WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THAT EVOLVES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS
FAVORING THE LVS SITE. POSSIBILITIES AT TCC AND ROW BUT LESS
CONFIDENT THERE SO HEDGED ACCORDINGLY. DEPENDS ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND HOW THE AIRMASS COOLS. MORE SPACIAL COVERAGE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE VERDICT
IS STILL OUT ON HOW STRONG THEY WOULD GET AND WHERE THE FAVORED AREA
WOULD BE.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FIRE UP.
STILL EXPECTING LIGHTNING NEAR AND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE AT
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SMALLER
FOOTPRINT CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALSO
FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO AND
THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH A LARGE COLUMN.

MOISTURE WILL SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXPECTING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA STATE LINE THURSDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG THE ARIZONA STATE LINE WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OCCASIONALLY STRONGER BREEZES...TO PUSH THIS MOISTURE
BACK TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS MOISTURE PUSH WILL SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF STORMS FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE SUCH AS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG AND JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING
RAIN AND A BLEND OF WET AND DRY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. LARGER FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. I DID INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEEN HUMIDITY READINGS FOR A
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER RED FLAG AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.

ANOTHER MOISTURE PUSH WESTWARD...PARTLY DRIVEN BY
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH DUE TO STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED. PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE LESS CHANCES DUE TO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE THERE. LOOK FOR SOME BREEZINESS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD BE FOUND ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER. HUMIDITY
READINGS OVERALL LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST...AT LEAST AREAWIDE...ON
FRIDAY AS THE SINGLE DIGIT AREA ACROSS THE WEST GETS PUSHED OUT OF
THE STATE.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR SOME SORT OF SCOURING OF THE MOISTURE BACK
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST OPENS UP
AND SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WIND AND DRYNESS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN BUT IT IS SAFE
TO ASSUME THAT DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SCOURING
OF FRONTAL PUSH. DRYING STARTING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
EXTENDING FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY. ALSO EXPECT SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DURING THIS PERIOD...FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER CRITICAL FIRE GROWING
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF STRONG WIND/LOW RH WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT TEMPERATURES BOTH...DAY AND
NIGHTTIME WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE THE MOST UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE WESTSERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  91  53  88 /   0  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  34  81  41  80 /   5  30  20  30
CUBA............................  40  80  47  81 /  10  30  30  20
GALLUP..........................  36  86  43  83 /   0  10   5  10
EL MORRO........................  35  82  45  79 /   0  20  10  20
GRANTS..........................  38  86  46  82 /   0  20  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  39  84  47  84 /   0  20  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  50  91  57  90 /   0  10  10  10
CHAMA...........................  38  76  41  74 /  10  40  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  51  80  51  81 /  10  20  30  20
PECOS...........................  48  79  48  80 /  30  30  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  41  78  45  78 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  40  68  46  68 /  20  30  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  40  71  46  70 /  30  40  30  30
TAOS............................  41  81  47  81 /  20  20  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  51  86  54  87 /  10  20  30  20
SANTA FE........................  49  81  52  81 /  20  30  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  83  55  84 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  85  60  86 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  86  63  87 /  10  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  88  59  89 /  10  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  58  87  61  88 /  10  20  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  54  89  59  90 /  10  20  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  57  88  60  88 /  10  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  54  90  60  91 /   5  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  47  82  52  82 /  20  20  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  86  53  84 /  30  20  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  80  53  80 /  40  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  84  54  84 /  20  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  55  84  57  85 /  20  20  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  49  73  53  75 /  30  20  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  52  80  54  79 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  52  84  51  84 /  30  30  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  56  86  58  87 /  20  10   5   5
ROY.............................  56  82  58  81 /  30  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  59  91  61  91 /  30  10  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  59  89  60  89 /  30  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  90  61  91 /  20  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  58  86  59  87 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  60  87  60  88 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  90  61  90 /  20  10  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  63  90  63  89 /  20  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  58  84  59  86 /  30  20  10  10
ELK.............................  52  79  54  81 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

41/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 AM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

NMZ501>540-271200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
537 AM MDT WED MAY 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MANY
CENTRAL TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

52

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