Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 252216
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
316 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2009

CAC071-252230-
/O.CON.KVEF.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-090725T2230Z/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
316 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM PDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 312 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER 
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...OR 28 MILES WEST OF 
PRIMM...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3579 11601 3579 11574 3555 11576 3554 11597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 173DEG 8KT 3574 11587

$$

JS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1024 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
TAKES PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO MAIN BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MOISTURE REMAINS VERY
PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE LOW
60S FROM VEGAS SOUTH DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. DRIER IN THE FAR WEST
WITH 12Z EDWARDS SOUNDING SHOWING 0.78 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
WHILE BISHOP SFC DWPT IN THE LOWER 40S. DISTURBANCE THAT WAS OVER
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER 24 HOURS AGO WAS INITIALIZED OVER SOUTHWEST
UTAH AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH. WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT OF OUR AREA LIMITING FACTORS TODAY WILL BE THE LACK OF
ANY DISTURBANCE AND MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER SONORA MEXICO LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE... FOCUS
TODAY WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HEAVY RAIN THE THREAT.
WITH LESS DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
HAS ERODED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WITH LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEVELOPMENT STILL
CAPPED SOMEWHAT OVER SRN NV AND ERN CA. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED BUT AGAIN ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONVECTIVE DESK WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION.  NO
UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...250 AM PDT SAT JUL 25...RIDGE CENTER HAS SHIFTED
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO MORE OVER NEW MEXICO AS OF 09Z
SATURDAY. THIS HAS BROUGHT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TO MORE
SOUTHERLY WHICH IS BEGINNING TO DRY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OUT
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AS PW VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH. AT THE SAME TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE LI VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST VALUES
BETWEEN ZERO AND MINUS 3...INCREASED CAPE AND THETA E ALL POINT TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER MISSING INGREDIENT IS
THAT A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM IS NOT SEEN AT THIS TIME AND DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THIS
SAID...EXPECT ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED WATER
PROBLEMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
TODAY. BY SUNDAY...RIDGE CENTER BECOMES  MORE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN MEXICO AS
TROUGH OVER THE PACNW BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST. THIS TO DRY THE CWA
OUT FURTHER WITH ADDITION DRYING INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH SLIDES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
THEN INTO MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRYING INTO NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHER ON
TUESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE QUICKLY PASSING
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
OVERALL...WITH LESS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...IMPACTING ALL CORRIDORS. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL...AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH FOR HEATING TO INITIATE STORMS OVER SURROUNDING HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER MOIST...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED
VSBY ASSOCIATED WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER PRECIP.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VSBY AND
LOWERING CIGS...IN ADDITION TO TYPICAL GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. AWAY
FROM TSTMS...WINDS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE AOA 14K FEET.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

PIERCE/JENSEN/KENNEDY

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
513 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2009

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ524-526-527-NVZ015-016-020>022-260400-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
CADIZ BASIN-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
513 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2009 /513 AM MST SAT JUL 25 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CREATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
FURTHER DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

CAZ519>523-525-NVZ014-017>019-260400-
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-SHEEP RANGE-
SPRING MOUNTAINS-
513 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE SEEN FROM
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY...BUT
OVERALL A DRYING TRENDS WILL BE TAKING PLACE. BY MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYTIME SKIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.