Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 201804
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1104 AM MST MON JUL 20 2009

AZC015-201830-
/O.CON.KVEF.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090720T1830Z/
MOHAVE AZ-
1104 AM MST MON JUL 20 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM MST
FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...

AT 1102 AM MST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE 
COUNTY...OR 32 MILES SOUTH OF COLORADO CITY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 11264 3651 11263 3649 11264 3642 11289
      3659 11298 3674 11261 3658 11261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 259DEG 5KT 3655 11279

$$

ASG

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 201823
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1123 AM MST MON JUL 20 2009

AZC015-201832-
/O.EXP.KVEF.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090720T1830Z/
MOHAVE AZ-
1123 AM MST MON JUL 20 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM MST...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED. 
THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS HAS ENDED. 

LAT...LON 3654 11264 3651 11263 3649 11264 3642 11289
      3659 11298 3674 11261 3658 11261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 259DEG 5KT 3655 11276

$$

ASG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY HELP ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS
HOLD.
&&

.UPDATE...SO FAR THIS MORNING...CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CLARK...SOUTHERN NYE...AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY...OVER MOHAVE COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
TYPICAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THEREFORE...HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE
INCREASING POPS OVER THESE AREAS...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...FROM 415 AM PDT...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL ONLY
SEE SUBTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE RECIRCULATES. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX HANGING AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE LEFT FROM THE
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH PUSHED UP FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE 500 MB
STREAMLINES OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY THIS EVENING THEN MIGRATES NEAR NORTHERN INYO
COUNTY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW TODAY
THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR DIRECTING CONVECTION FROM LINCOLN COUNTY DOWN
INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS
HISTORICALLY PRODUCED SEVERE STORMS FOR CLARK COUNTY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THEN MIGRATES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY FOR
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT OF
COURSE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...IN THE BIG PICTURE THINGS BASICALLY STAY THE SAME
THROUGH THE EXTENDED - A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.
THE MAIN ISSUE ON THURSDAY IS HOW MUCH DRYING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. MOISTURE-WISE THAT DAY
WE WILL BASICALLY BE WORKING WITH WHATEVER IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW A BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...THE SPRING MOUNTAINS
AND MOHAVE COUNTY LOOKS REASONABLE.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION - A FAVORED
SPOT TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO COME ON INTO OUR AREA. AN EXPANDING
THETA-E RIDGE INTO UTAH AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS APPROACHING +8C AND
PWATS OVER AN INCH INTO THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH AFTERNOONS EVEN IN THE VALLEYS FROM I-15 SOUTHWARD. IF ONE
COULD TRUST THE SMALLER DETAILS SHOWN SUCH AS A RIPPLE IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS INDICATIVE OF SOME SORT OF INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING
THROUGH...THIS WOULD FURTHER POINT TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY WITH
A FEATURE TO DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT - MOST LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPWISE MODELS CAME IN MUCH COOLER ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
OPTED TO HALF STEP AND JUST GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW. BUT IF IT IS
VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE THE CURRENT HIGHS ARE STILL WAY TOO WARM.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PAC NW WHICH EITHER CUTS OFF AND REMAINS THERE OR IS
LONG GONE TO THE EAST. THE MAIN IMPACT ON THAT WOULD BE ON HOW MUCH
DRYING TAKES PLACE IN THE NORTHERN CWFA. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE WE
GO BACK INTO RECYCLING WHATEVER MOISTURE IS AROUND WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA IN THE VCTY OF THE TERMINAL BY THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT
THIS IN THE TAF. WILL ALSO ADD IN A TEMPO GROUP FROM 20Z-00Z FOR
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS DUE TO TSTMS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
AND NEAR ANY TSTMS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEY COULD BECOME
ERRATIC IN DIRECTION.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AWAY FROM ANY TSTMS WINDS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN
DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN AND NEAR STORMS BEING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...THROUGH JULY 19TH THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT MCCARRAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN AT LEAST 80 DEGREES OR BETTER EACH
DAY MAKING IT THE 23RD DAY IN A ROW WITH SUCH A LOW TEMPERATURE
MAKING IT THE SECOND LONGEST STRETCH OF 80 DEGREE OR BETTER LOW
TEMPERATURES ON RECORD. THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR BETTER IS A 24 DAY STRETCH THAT STARTED
ON JUNE 29 2007. GIVEN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN THERE IS A VERY
GOOD CHANCE WE COULD BREAK THAT RECORD.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&

ADAIR/STACHELSKI

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
540 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2009

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-210700-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
540 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2009 /540 AM MST MON JUL 20 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS
ASIDE FROM LIGHTNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS
THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT INFORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE RAPIDLY INCREASES. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JA