Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
141 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN UTAH HAS CREATED A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING NEAR RECORD
HEAT TO THE REGION. WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH IS NOT IDEAL...
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EVERYTHING IS FALLING INTO PLACE FOR A RIM SHOT/
TYPE-II SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE MONSOON HIGH IN ALMOST EXACTLY THE RIGHT PLACE...ALBEIT BRIEFLY.
BECAUSE WE ARE STILL LACKING A LITTLE IN MOISTURE...I AM NOT GOING
AS HIGH ON POPS AS WE NORMALLY WOULD FOR THIS TYPE OF SETUP. BUT WE
WILL RAISE ANOTHER 10 PCT OR SO AND INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR THE
EVENING PER LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE
NSSL EXPERIMENTAL 4KM ARW WRF WHICH WAS USED FOR THE VORTEX 2
PROJECT BUT HAS A DOMAIN EXTENDING INTO AZ. IT FORMS THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WE ARE SEEING ON THE WHITES AND GILAS INTO BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS AND DROPS THEM SW ACROSS THE E 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
EXPECTED VALLEY CAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND 35KTS OF 2-6KM BULK
SHEAR CONFIRM A LIKELY BOWING LINE SCENARIO. THE 4KM NSSL WRF ALSO
PUSHES DECAYING AND MOSTLY DRY OUTFLOWS ALL THE WAY THROUGH W PIMA
COUNTY LATE IN THE EVENING. AS MENTIONED IN OUR HWO...HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT THE MAIN THREAT WITH RATHER FAST MOVING CELLS AND LINES...
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLUSTERING COULD ENHANCE AMOUNTS HERE AND THERE.
THANKS TO SPC AND 25TH OWS AT DMAFB FOR COORDINATION TODAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. UPPER HIGH
WILL MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL AZ BY SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES WRAP AROUND IT. WE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND SINCE SE AZ WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH...AND THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS SO DEEP THAT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS GOING TO TRY AND PUSH W THRU NM. IT WON/T MAKE IT...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AND N-NE UPPER FLOW WILL TEND TO PROPEL ANY TSTMS IN THE GILAS AND
WHITES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. FARTHER W THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
HEAT AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY THING HOLDING US BACK FROM
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR W 1/2 NOW IS THAT WE COULD FIGHT
DEBRIS CLOUDS BOTH DAYS WHICH WOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL DEFER
THAT DECISION TO FUTURE SHIFTS...BUT REGARDLESS...ANOTHER VERY HOT
WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FROM KTUS WEST
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER...BUT
AGAIN...DID NOT LOWER THEM TOO MUCH SINCE IT NOW LOOKS UNLIKELY WE
WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE HIGH. BASICALLY WENT WITH A LOW GRADE POP
FORECAST WEST AND LOW-MID GRADE EAST.

NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT UPRAMP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GFS BEATING THE ECMWF LATELY IN OUR GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MID JULY
CLIMO AFTER DAY 5 THOUGH AS EVEN THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER HIGH UP
INTO UT AND THE TROPICS TO OUR S BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST OFF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND GILA MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 40 KTS. THE MAIN THREAT OF TSTMS WILL BE A
LITTLE LATER THAN USUAL...WITH KOLS AND KDUG THE MOST LIKELY TIME AT
23-03Z AND KTUS AT 01-05Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS EVENING AND
ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
SOUTH BY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TEND TO DECREASE AS VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...PYTLAK
FIRE WX/AVIATION...LADER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1024 AM MST FRI JUL 17 2009

AZZ019-029-030-033>035-180700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1024 AM MST FRI JUL 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IN
COMBINATION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SET
THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND GILA MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO AND
ROLL WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GUSTY AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. DUE TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF
THESE STORMS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF
OF AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA AND STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-032-180700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
1024 AM MST FRI JUL 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IN
COMBINATION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SET
THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND GILA MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO AND
ROLL WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GUSTY AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RESULT
IN LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. DUE TO THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA AND STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
456 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     DUST STORM       2 W SAFFORD             32.83N 109.73W
07/17/2009                   GRAHAM             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE IN AROUND THE DOWNTOWN
            AREA. WIND EST 40-45MPH.

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW SAFFORD           32.85N 109.78W
07/17/2009                   GRAHAM             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY TREES DOWNED IN CENTRAL PART OF THE CITY OF SAFFORD.
            VISIBILITY AROUND 20 FEET IN DUST.

&&

MSHERWOO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
520 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAFFORD                 32.83N 109.70W
07/17/2009  M63 MPH          GRAHAM             AZ   ASOS

&&

CSHOEMAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
545 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAFFORD                 32.83N 109.70W
07/17/2009                   GRAHAM             AZ   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS POWER POLES DOWN ON ROUTE 70 AROUND MILE MARKER
            311 AND ON ROUTE 191 AROUND MILE MARKER 118.

&&

MSHERWOO

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