Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 300044
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
544 PM MST MON JUN 29 2009

AZC003-300115-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090630T0115Z/
COCHISE AZ-
544 PM MST MON JUN 29 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 536 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 
NEAR KANSAS SETTLEMENT...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF WILLCOX...MOVING SOUTH 
AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
DRAGOON...SUNIZONA AND PEARCE-SUNSITES.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 
MPH NEAR COCHISE. 

LAT...LON 3173 10936 3166 11002 3215 11006 3219 10958
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 010DEG 8KT 3205 10978

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 300110
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
610 PM MST MON JUN 29 2009

AZC003-300119-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090630T0115Z/
COCHISE AZ-
610 PM MST MON JUN 29 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 615 PM MST...

THE STORMS THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG WINDS NEAR COCHISE IN CENTRAL 
COCHISE COUNTY HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE NO LONGER SEVERE. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 615 PM MST. 

LAT...LON 3173 10936 3166 11002 3215 11006 3219 10958
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 010DEG 8KT 3199 10979

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST MON JUN 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION STARTING IN ERNEST OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
NICE ORGANIZATION ON THE RIM. LESS DEBRIS CLOUD AROUND THIS
MORNING...SO MANY AREAS WERE ABLE TO MANAGE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
FULL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S THIS MORNING...EASILY HOLDING MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z KTUS SOUNDING CAME IN WITH 1.58 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING UP FROM SONORA ON GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATES. LESS STABLE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH A LITTLE COOLING AROUND H5 OVER THE PAST 24
HOUR4S WITH BETTER SHEAR AS WELL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY PUSH TRYING TO
DEEPEN MOISTURE IN LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. ADD IN A FAVORABLE
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING LEVEL FLOW AND IT IS STILL SHAPING UP
TO BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH COVERAGE SPREADING FURTHER WESTWARD.
ANOTHER DAY WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET MICROBURSTS A
CONCERN.

HIGH CENTER RECONSOLIDATING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO EASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY COMPONENTS TO FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE MOST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A DAILY SHOT OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN SOME WEST
COASTAL TROFINESS THIS WEEKEND...BUT GFS SEES HIGH RECONSOLIDATE
INTO A SEMI BLOCKING POSITION THROUGH NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL
MEXICO WHILE THE EUROPEAN PHASES THE HIGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE DIFFERENCES ARE MORE IMPORTANT FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE
STATE...NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO BACK OFF ON THE FORECAST MUCH FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED CEILINGS WILL BE 10-13K FT AGL
WITH CIGS NEAR TSRA/SHRA DOWN TO ABOUT 3-6K FT AGL. SURFACE WINDS
TODAY GENERALLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LESS THAN 15 KTS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN FEW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
730 AM MST MON JUN 29 2009

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-301430-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
730 AM MST MON JUN 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-301430-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
730 AM MST MON JUN 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TODAY. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WITH SOME STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXPECT THE CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THIS WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN.
SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON