Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 190152
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
652 PM MST MON MAY 18 2009

AZC019-190200-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090519T0200Z/
PIMA AZ-
652 PM MST MON MAY 18 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 650 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL 
AIRPORT...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF TUCSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE A DUST STORM OVER THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 
TUCSON METRO AREA. WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD 
OF ANY RAIN OR LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER 
BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 11109 3225 11084 3210 11081 3204 11098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 045DEG 13KT 3214 11092

$$

CS

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 190205
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
705 PM MST MON MAY 18 2009

AZC019-190212-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090519T0200Z/
PIMA AZ-
705 PM MST MON MAY 18 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AND BLOWING DUST 
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE MILE...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS 
ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3224 11109 3225 11084 3210 11081 3204 11098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 045DEG 13KT 3213 11093

$$

CS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST MON MAY 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY MIDWEEK. MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ON TAP WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BIT OF A COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER
LOW SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH
IS SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SE ARIZONA INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS.

THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF 0.62 INCHES WHICH IS 0.16
INCHES LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THE UNMODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS A
LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 4 AND A CAPE OF AROUND 900 J/KG. MODIFYING THE
SOUNDING FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON YIELDS SIMILAR
RESULTS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE
SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD. NAM12 IS PICKING UP
ON THIS FEATURE AND HAS IT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE WE COULD SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO ACTIVITY DUE TO THIS FEATURE. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO WITH THE STORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH NORTHWEST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHETHER THE
STORMS IN MEXICO WILL SURVIVE ONCE THEY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA.
AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 17 DEGS AT
TUCSON TO 35 DEGS AT DOUGLAS. CURRENT DEWPOINT VALUES RANGE FROM 6
TO 22 DEGS COOLER/DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

MY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
CALLS FOR MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE AREAS WEST OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...WILL BASE MY
EVENING FORECAST LARGELY ON THE RADAR TRENDS RIGHT BEFORE THE TIME
OF ISSUANCE.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TO
MOVE EAST TOMORROW WITH THE PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. I
DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE MODELS NOW SHOW THE SYSTEM SLOWING AND
MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND I JUST KEPT ISOLATED POPS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY...
THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A WARMUP OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGHS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...THEN 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS INFLUX IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER
LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. DRIER
AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED
TO THE WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 9-11K FT AGL...ALTHOUGH BASES MAY
LOWER BRIEFLY TO AROUND 5K FT AGL VICINITY TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE ELY/SELY AT 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
VICINITY TSRA WITH GUSTS OF BETWEEN 35-45 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
524 AM MST MON MAY 18 2009

AZZ019-029>035-181400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
524 AM MST MON MAY 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BUT
THE RISK OF SEVERE DOWN BURST WINDS WAS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. EACH DAY COULD BRING A THREAT OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME... WEDNESDAY LOOKED TO BE
THE DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON