Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 070036
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
536 PM MST SUN SEP 6 2009

AZC023-070145-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-090907T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
536 PM MST SUN SEP 6 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
STRONG STORM THAT PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL 
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY HAD WEAKENED...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL 
CONTINUE TO FILL NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND ROADWAY DIPS WITH RUNNING 
WATER.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURED ALONG A LINE FROM THE NOGALES 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TO RIO RICO...WEST TO THE ATASCOSA MOUNTAINS. 
RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES HAD FALLEN IN THESE 
AREAS.   

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RIO RICO.

LAT...LON 3134 11080 3134 11107 3137 11115 3153 11094
      3143 11074

$$

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 070142
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
642 PM MST SUN SEP 6 2009

AZC023-070145-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-090907T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
642 PM MST SUN SEP 6 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL 
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED AND THE RAINFALL RUNOFF HAS HAD 
AMPLE TIME TO DRAIN INTO WASHES. THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF FLASH 
FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE AT 645 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3134 11080 3134 11107 3137 11115 3153 11094
      3143 11074

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST SUN SEP 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK...A FEW WITH HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT A
SLOW DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS A TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
NORTH OF US...BUT WE SHOULD HANG ON TO ENOUGH FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STEADY THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPTS HAVE ACTUALLY HAD A LITTLE HARDER TIME
HOLDING TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE MORE
ROOM FOR MIXING OUT IN LOWER LEVELS. FOR TODAY...SOME MID LEVEL
COOLING HAS HELPED DESTABILIZE THINGS EVEN MORE. WE HAVE HAD LITTLE
PROBLEM GETTING STORMS GOING TO A SCATTERED COVERAGE...MAYBE A BIT
HIGHER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SLOW MOVERS SHOULD DROP A LOT OF RAIN
FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT DONT EXPECT IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
PROBLEM TO NEED A WATCH. SOME ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT AGAIN
BUT PROBABLY LESS THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BASIN GENERALLY
NORTH OF US OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THIS WILL HELP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EVEN THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL PROBABLY START TO SEE SLOW
DRYING AS WELL. RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK FOR ANOTHER HEATING TREND. SHOULD HANG ON TO ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND COULD RE-IMPORT A BIT MORE IF THE HIGH CENTER
CONSOLIDATES NORTH OF US AS SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...OTHERWISE CLOUD
DECKS 5-8K FT AGL OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
810 AM MST SUN SEP 6 2009

AZZ031-032-070700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
810 AM MST SUN SEP 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ALTHOUGH THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO
DRY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-029-030-033>035-070700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE
COUNTY-
810 AM MST SUN SEP 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OF THE
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOIST AIRMASS WILL DRY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON