Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2009

Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 19, 2009Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 19, 2009, 6:24 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 111 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 19, 2009, 6:24 PM MST (01:24 UTC)
Expired
Jul 19, 2009, 8:15 PM MST
In force
111 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2009-07-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 57 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2009-07-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 19 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
57 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3770 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
41 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KTWC 200124
FFWTWC
AZC019-200315-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0015.090720T0124Z-090720T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
624 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 815 PM MST

* AT 614 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR A 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR HICKIWAN. RADAR 
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FROM 1.00 TO 3.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS 
OCCURED OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE HICKIWAN WASH WILL HAVE A RAPID 
INCREASE IN FLOW OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING IN HICKIWAN. FLASH FLOODING OF WASHES AND LOW WATER 
CROSSINGS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN AN AREA BETWEEN HICKIWAN...SAN SIMON 
VILLAGE AND GU VO.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 11266 3251 11261 3250 11240 3187 11229
      3190 11257

$$

SHOEMAKER
2 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS75 KTWC 200244
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
744 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2009

AZC019-200315-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090720T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
744 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 742 PM MST...RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FROM 1.00 TO 3.00 
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. THE HICKIWAN 
WASH WILL HAVE A RAPID INCREASE IN FLOW OVER THE NEXT TWO 
HOURS...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN HICKIWAN. FLASH FLOODING 
OF WASHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN AN AREA BETWEEN 
HICKIWAN...SAN SIMON VILLAGE AND GU VO.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HICKIWAN.

LAT...LON 3246 11266 3251 11261 3250 11240 3187 11229
      3190 11257

$$

CS
000 
WGUS75 KTWC 200312
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
812 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2009

AZC019-200322-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090720T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
812 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM MST FOR CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY...

LAT...LON 3246 11266 3251 11261 3250 11240 3187 11229
      3190 11257

$$

CS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 19, 1:31 PM MST, 4 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 1:31 PM MST, 4 hours 53 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST SUN JULY 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DAILY CYCLE OF SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-55 DBZ CELLS NEAR
THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS FAR SRN PIMA COUNTY AND WRN SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AT 2025Z. OTHER CELLS WERE JUST NE OF HANNAGAN MEADOW.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CUMULOFORM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE CONCERN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. FOR INSTANCE
KTUS DEWPOINT WAS 45 F AT 2020Z. BULK OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN PROGGED TO EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES
THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SWRN
CONUS. THUS MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON
19/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FEATURES WITHIN
THE FLOW THAT WOULD SIGNIFY A MORE-PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE
DAY FROM ANOTHER. SO WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR LOW-END CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO
BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST TSRA WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS WITH BASES 11-13K FT AGL. TSRA/SHRA TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 04Z AND ANY CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS SWLY/WLY 5-15 KTS THRU 06Z THEN SLY/SELY 5-15 KTS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEK...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THEN A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND REGIME ON TAP MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 9:30 AM MST, 8 hours 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 19 2009

AZZ019-030-034-035-201200-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
930 AM MST SUN JUL 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ029-031>033-201200-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
930 AM MST SUN JUL 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO END
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL AND PIMA COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 5:23 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima52 min
Jul 19, 6:06 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima39 min
Jul 20, 4:25 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima65 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2009Every flash flood warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.