Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH THESE
STORMS IMPACTING ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INDICATES THE THREAT OF ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40...INCLUDING THE CHANCE
FOR A TORNADO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY IMPACT TO THE NORTH WHERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE
ELEVATED. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THIS ROUND OF
STORMS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS TIME THE AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS TIME
APPEAR TO LIGHT...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...AND LATER FORECASTS
WILL CONTINUALLY UPDATE SNOW AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY AS THE STRONG STORM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY...
AND CONSIDER POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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