Wind Advisory 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT WED APR 1 2009

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED MIXING DEPTHS SUPPORT FORECAST
HIGHS. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A QUICK WARM UP ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WEAKENS
SUFFICIENTLY. UPDATE WILL INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE INCREASING WIND GUSTS SLIGHTLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  48  58  34 /  10  50  90  10
FSM   70  50  62  36 /  10  40  90  10
MLC   71  53  60  35 /  10  40  60  10
BVO   67  44  55  28 /  10  60  90  10
FYV   67  49  58  30 /  10  50  90  20
BYV   66  50  60  31 /  10  50 100  20
MKO   68  51  55  33 /  10  40  80  10
MIO   67  45  54  30 /  10  60  90  10
F10   69  53  58  35 /  10  40  70  10
HHW   73  54  62  38 /  10  30  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
709 AM CDT WED APR 1 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
708 AM CDT WED APR 1 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH A GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AREAWIDE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT...WHEN A WARM FRONT SETS UP TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT PROVIDING LIFT FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
WIND SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
WITH SOME STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DECREASING DURING THE
DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS OF SEVER WEATHER POTENTIAL
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.