Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
407 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAKING GOOD PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH WELL DEFINED MCV LOCATED BETWEEN
COFFEYVILLE KANSAS AND WANN OKLAHOMA. STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING AND ALL WATCHES HAVE NOW EXPIRED AS A RESULT. MAY STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIOMINISHED CONSIDERABLY.

WILL HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT TODAY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO A BIG FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WITH THE
NAM KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS RIGHT ON
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS...CLIMATOLOGY ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A LOW
OVERCAST PERSISTING ALL DAY SO WILL COUNT ON SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO THE
WARMER GFS MOS.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW EXPECT THE RAIN TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  62  86  61 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   83  62  85  61 /  90  10  10  10
MLC   88  63  87  60 /  40  10  10  10
BVO   84  58  86  54 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   77  57  82  52 / 100  10  10  10
BYV   77  57  81  53 / 100  10  10  10
MKO   84  62  86  60 /  70  10  10  10
MIO   79  59  83  58 /  60  10  10  10
F10   86  62  86  60 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   91  65  89  64 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
857 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 609 IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL
4 AM CDT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
ONSET...AROUND MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST OF
                                INTERSTATE 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND SPC UPGRADED TO
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS PRESENT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN KANSAS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS IT WEAKENS
AND MOVES TO EAST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
END BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THE  REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO SEASONAL
LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     TSTM WND GST     BARNSDALL               36.56N 96.16W
07/21/2009  E65 MPH          OSAGE              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            1 TO 2 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

KDJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

OKZ056-057-060>068-070-071-210930-
CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH
OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA
OK-WAGONER OK-
320 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE...WAGONER...ROGERS...SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...
     SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG...SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA...CREEK...TULSA AND
     MAYES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MUSKOGEE...NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

AT 319 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW ALLUWE TO VERDIGRIS TO
SAPULPA TO SHAMROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS THE ALERT AREA. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3674 9558 3632 9497 3577 9513 3559 9550
      3544 9611 3583 9663 3599 9663 3608 9619
      3628 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 315DEG 30KT 3667 9555 3621 9568
          3601 9611 3591 9661

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

OKZ057-058-062-063-066>074-211030-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-HASKELL OK-MAYES
OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OTTAWA OK-PITTSBURG
OK-SEQUOYAH OK-WAGONER OK-
413 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...DELAWARE...
     SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA...WESTERN ADAIR AND
     EASTERN MAYES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE...CHEROKEE AND WESTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH...NORTHERN HASKELL AND NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG

AT 413 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF VINITA TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LOCUST GROVE TO 4 MILES NORTH OF MUSKOGEE TO OKMULGEE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3668 9465 3578 9460 3538 9481 3516 9551
      3561 9614 3586 9544 3630 9521 3674 9520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 314DEG 28KT 3668 9517 3623 9513
          3579 9536 3560 9596