Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
106 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
106 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE CONCERN.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ROLLS ACROSS
THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL WIND DOWN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
END BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO SEASONAL
LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
123 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

ARZ002-201900-
CARROLL AR-
123 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL

AT 123 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
METALTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...DRYFORK...DELMAR...
METALTON...RUDD...CONNOR...CARROLLTON AND RULE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE HALF HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3613 9354 3615 9355 3615 9357 3616 9358
      3619 9357 3619 9359 3627 9361 3629 9330
      3613 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 314DEG 8KT 3622 9352

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

ARZ001-010-011-202045-
BENTON AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
311 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...CORRECTED FOR DUPLICATE WORDING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN BENTON AND NORTHWESTERN
     MADISON

AT 302 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST MADISON COUNTIES
IN ARKANSAS. A COUPLE OF THE LARGER STORMS WERE LOCATED JUST EAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE AND JUST NORTH OF MAYFIELD. STORM MOVEMENT WAS SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 MILES HOUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES...IN LESS THAN AN
HOURS TIME...IN PARTS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND NORTHWEST
MADISON COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

LAT...LON 3624 9379 3597 9402 3603 9416 3625 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 129DEG 3KT 3625 9403 3606 9413

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

ARZ001-202130-
BENTON AR-
344 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL BENTON

AT 340 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF VAUGHN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALSO FORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF BENTON COUNTY.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROCKY
COMFORT...MILLER...HILL TOP...BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...PEA
RIDGE...HEALING SPRINGS...CAVE SPRINGS...VAUGHN...CENTERTON...AVOCA
AND BELLA VISTA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN AN HOURS TIME.  SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

LAT...LON 3650 9393 3621 9422 3621 9434 3650 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 211DEG 4KT 3630 9427