Severe Thunderstorm Warning 392, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT IN NE OKLAHOMA/NW
ARKANSAS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...HEAT INDICES ARE STILL ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WILL MAINTAIN HEAT
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AN EXTENSION INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS IN ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. CU FIELD HAS
BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST/WEST STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR THE AR/MO STATE LINE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
YIELD THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WX...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

NAM BRINGS AN MCS THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ANY CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA. STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPS WARMER AND POPS LOWER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. WITH ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING MOIST...DID LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE
STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AND OTHER BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN
THE REGION.

UPPER HIGH SLATED TO MAKE A SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HIGH
AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 105 TO 108 RANGE IN THE ADVISORY AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ALSO ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING WARM...THOUGH
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF AND WHERE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WITH
THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE HEAT WARNING AREA.
HEAT INDICES CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN IN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
SE US. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO
OUR NORTH. DUE TO THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF...MAINTAINED LOW POPS
AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  98  79 100 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   74  97  75  98 /  30  20  10  10
MLC   74  99  77  98 /  40  20  10   0
BVO   71  96  74 100 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   69  91  72  92 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   70  92  71  92 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   74  97  74  98 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   70  95  76  98 /  10  20  10  10
F10   74  98  75  99 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   73 100  76  97 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EAST CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
COMBINE WITH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO TRIGGERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT AND REDEVELOP THAT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TULSA
COUNTY FOR THE SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN HOT
AND HUMID...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...AND RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES... THERE WILL ALSO
BE THE CHANCE FOR INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE... WITH DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY PERSONNEL SHOULD HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS
INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LONGER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

OKZ062-067>069-052230-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-WAGONER OK-
449 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN WAGONER...WESTERN ADAIR AND SOUTHERN MAYES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

AT 449 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTH OF TAHLEQUAH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PROCTOR...TAHLEQUAH...
HULBERT...ELDON...LOST CITY AND PEGGS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3594 9468 3572 9506 3609 9527 3617 9499
      3617 9495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 308DEG 14KT 3598 9500

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             2 S WITTER              35.91N 93.68W
08/05/2009  E1.50 INCH       MADISON            AR   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN DIAMETER FELL SOUTH OF WITTER
            ALONG WITH RAINFALL OF 2.80 INCHES OVER ABOUT AN HALF
            HOUR PERIOD FROM 430 PM TO 500 PM.

&&

MEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             3 E CENTRAL CITY        35.32N 94.20W
08/05/2009  E0.75 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 22 AND
            96. HAIL HAS BEEN FALLING FOR 10 MINUTES.

&&

MEB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             BARNES                  35.64N 93.82W
08/05/2009  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             LAVACA                  35.34N 94.17W
08/05/2009  E1.75 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PBS