Severe Thunderstorm Warning 375, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 282321
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

OKC113-282345-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0375.000000T0000Z-090728T2345Z/
OSAGE OK-
621 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

AT 621 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN OSAGE
COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3671 9705 3670 9694 3676 9689 3676 9683
      3655 9674 3656 9678 3654 9683 3655 9691
      3656 9690 3660 9691 3658 9701 3661 9706
      3668 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 324DEG 23KT 3666 9698

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTING A DIFFICULT TASK. OF COURSE... PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE
DIRECTLY TIES INTO THE TEMPERATURES AS WELL. WITH MOIST LOWER LEVELS
AND INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES ALOFT... IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
RAINFALL WILL BE ABUNDANT IN AND CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PINPOINTING EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY DAY FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE FORECAST AREA... WITH CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RELYING UPON ANY ONE MODEL SEEMS FUTILE IN THIS
SITUATION. AS AN EXAMPLE... THE GFS COMES UP WITH HUGE QPF BULLS-EYES
WHICH MAKE IT EXTREMELY SUSPECT.

HAVE TENDED TO USE COINCIDENT PRECIP SIGNALS BETWEEN DIFFERENT
MODELS TO DEDUCE THE MOST LIKELY POPS. HAVE RELIED STRONGLY ON HPC
FOR QPF GUIDANCE. SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES NOT YET DEPICTED
IN THE MODELS MAY PLAY A LARGE PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HAVE GENERALLY UTILIZED A SECRET BLEND OF
THE MAV AND MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  66  83 /  40  30  50  60
FSM   70  86  70  85 /  30  30  60  70
MLC   69  86  72  83 /  30  30  60  60
BVO   67  83  58  85 /  40  30  40  50
FYV   64  81  63  81 /  30  20  50  60
BYV   62  79  64  80 /  30  20  40  60
MKO   70  83  69  86 /  40  40  50  60
MIO   65  82  63  83 /  50  20  30  50
F10   70  82  69  85 /  40  30  60  60
HHW   69  91  73  85 /  30  20  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...PRIMARILY WEST OF A MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.  THESE STORMS WERE IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND BEING AIDED BY A PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.  INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS ALOFT HAVE ALSO STRENGTHENED AHEAD
OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.  THIS HAS PROVIDED AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.  STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.  THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP INTO A
LARGE COMPLEX THAT TRACKS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM
COMPLEX TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR SUMMER WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.