Severe Thunderstorm Warning 353, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

...AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS
BORDER MAY IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. TAF
SITES KTUL KRVS KFYV KXNA RISK THUNDER MAINLY IN
08Z-14Z TIME PERIOD.  A HIGHER THREAT OF THUNDER
WILL BE NORTH OF THOSE SITES... HOWEVER OUTFLOW
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION. MORE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  96  72  91 /  30  30  60  10
FSM   75  96  73  91 /  20  30  60  20
MLC   76  99  74  93 /  10  20  60  20
BVO   70  93  69  91 /  60  30  50  10
FYV   72  90  67  88 /  30  40  60  20
BYV   70  88  67  85 /  40  50  60  20
MKO   75  95  71  92 /  20  30  60  10
MIO   71  93  69  88 /  60  50  60  10
F10   76  96  72  92 /  10  20  60  10
HHW   76  98  74  95 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING A
LITTLE...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
EXISTS DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND INCREASING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT.  STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR AND EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE HOT ON THURSDAY
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER NOTICEABLE
COOLING IS LIKELY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEVELOPING
WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS REPEATED CHANCES FOR PASSING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.