Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
809 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT.
ADJUSTED THE POPS SLIGHTLY AND ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WORDING.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CAUSE THE CONTINUATION
OF THE BOWING...LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 9 AM. EXPECT A CONTINUATION TO
THE EAST WITH DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE AREA TOWARDS
THE AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY. ALSO...FORWARD SPEED MAY INCREASE WITH
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST CATCHING UP TO THE MCS AND GIVING IT A PUSH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
504 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS MORNING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
AN ONGOING MCS CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...
MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUATION OF THIS MCS AS IT ENTERS THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

RE-INITIATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PERSISTENT FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. VERY
MOIST LOWER LEVELS... AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CREATE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BREACH THE CAPPING
INVERSION WITH THE AID OF AFTERNOON HEATING. AGAIN... LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WITH SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS SLOW TO EVOLVE... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE REGION... AS
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE AREA...
WHILE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF
OVERNIGHT SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

OKZ071-073-121500-
MCINTOSH OK-PITTSBURG OK-
932 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN MCINTOSH AND NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG

AT 933 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CROWDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA...CROWDER...
INDIANOLA AND CANADIAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3533 9552 3521 9545 3518 9545 3517 9542
      3513 9539 3498 9578 3513 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 239DEG 25KT 3512 9569

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     TSTM WND GST     PAWHUSKA                36.67N 96.34W
06/12/2009  E60 MPH          OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KDJ