Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. VERY WELL DEVELOPED MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. MAIN THREAT
FOR SEVERE IS HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

MCS MOVING INTO AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO
2 INCHES BRIEF EXTREME RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
903 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
845 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT EXPECTED OVER EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALL AREAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALL AREAS.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
APPROACHING EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT MID MORNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST HAVE
APPROACHED 4 INCHES IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THIS AREA IS MOVING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES LATER TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE RUNOFF...WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MUCH EVOLUTION
OVER THE COMING WEEK. THEREFORE... THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND REMAIN AWARE OF CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING DAYS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SUBJECT TO
VERY RAPID CHANGES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

OKZ065-066-071-291730-
MCINTOSH OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1143 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN MCINTOSH

AT 1142 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF BEARDEN TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WILSON...OKEMAH...WELEETKA...
BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...
HENRYETTA...BRYANT...DEWAR...HOFFMAN...GRAYSON...SCHULTER...HANNA...
VERNON...RAIFORD...STIDHAM...PIERCE...HITCHITA AND COUNCIL HILL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3560 9662 3555 9562 3520 9576 3520 9582
      3515 9597 3529 9599 3529 9643 3545 9644
      3545 9647 3542 9649 3544 9656 3541 9653
      3538 9654 3538 9655 3539 9657 3541 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 240DEG 23KT 3535 9656 3518 9600