Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE JUST SENT OUT THE DOOR...WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE
POP/WX STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT FAIRLY SOLID
LINE OF CONVECTION SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ORIENTED 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
LINE...TAPERING TO MID RANGE CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED. ALSO
BEGAN TO TAPER THE POPS FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A LACK OF BOTH
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ON SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

OKZ070-071-190015-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
636 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH

AT 636 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
WEST OF CHECOTAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...RENTIESVILLE...
OKTAHA...KEEFETON...WAINWRIGHT AND SUMMIT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3579 9545 3558 9513 3540 9560 3547 9569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 228DEG 15KT 3548 9557

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

OKZ073-190045-
PITTSBURG OK-
705 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 705 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KIOWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KIOWA...PITTSBURG...BLANCO
AND SAVANNA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3460 9589 3468 9589 3468 9608 3495 9583
      3478 9561 3459 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 223DEG 14KT 3465 9597

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
828 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

OKZ073-075-190215-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
828 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHWESTERN LATIMER

AT 828 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WILBURTON...HIGGINS...GOWEN...
HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...DOW...BACHE...ALDERSON...KREBS AND
FEATHERSTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3489 9580 3515 9544 3508 9535 3506 9535
      3506 9532 3495 9518 3473 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 226DEG 20KT 3486 9561