Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6 DEG C SOUTH OF TULSA. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS VERY COLD 500 MB AIR SWINGS
AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW. RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MEX
GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH WARMING TREND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  66  47  69 /  70  30   0   0
FSM   56  68  46  69 /  70  30  10   0
MLC   52  69  45  71 /  50  10  10   0
BVO   50  65  44  70 /  90  40   0   0
FYV   51  63  41  64 /  90  40   0   0
BYV   52  62  42  63 /  90  50  10   0
MKO   52  66  44  69 /  60  20   0   0
MIO   53  65  44  67 /  90  40   0   0
F10   50  65  45  70 /  60  20  10   0
HHW   54  69  48  72 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A LACK OF BOTH
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ON SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             VINITA                  36.64N 95.15W
04/18/2009  E0.88 INCH       CRAIG              OK   PUBLIC

&&

KAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             1 N MUSKOGEE            35.76N 95.37W
04/18/2009  E0.88 INCH       MUSKOGEE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY MEDIA

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             WHITE OAK               36.62N 95.26W
04/18/2009  E0.75 INCH       CRAIG              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL. LARGEST STONE DIME TO PENNY
            SIZE...BUT SPOTTER DROVE UP ON HAIL ALMOST A HALF HOUR
            AFTER IT FELL SO HAIL LIKELY BIGGER. TIME ESTIMATED VIA
            RADAR.

&&

KAT

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